Evaluación de impacto de impuestos ambientales en el sector energético chileno.
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Date
2026
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Publisher
Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
El impuesto al carbono constituye un instrumento económico ampliamente recomendado para enfrentar las causas estructurales de la crisis climática. Sin embargo, la mayoría de las evaluaciones sobre su efectividad se basan en metodologías ex – ante, mientras que la evidencia empírica de sus efectos causales mediante técnicas econométricas ex – post sigue siendo limitada. En Chile, el impuesto al carbono y los tributos a contaminantes locales del aire (MP, SO2 y NOX) se aplican desde 2017 a las emisiones de grandes fuentes fijas, principalmente a centrales termoeléctricas. En este contexto, la presente tesis doctoral tiene por objetivo evaluar el impacto de estos instrumentos sobre las emisiones de CO2, el consumo de combustibles fósiles y la generación de electricidad, utilizando el método de diferencia-en-diferencias tradicional y su extensión dinámica. Para ello, se utilizan bases de datos a nivel de unidad de generación termoeléctrica y central termoeléctrica con periodicidad mensual, trimestral y anual para el período 2014-2022, permitiendo analizar los efectos directos e indirectos de estos impuestos ambientales sobre el sector eléctrico. Los resultados muestran que la aplicación del impuesto al CO2 (5 USD/tCO2) reduce significativamente las emisiones de CO2 (entre 15,6% y 18,0% anual), el consumo de combustibles fósiles (entre 13,1% y 14,9% anual) y la generación de electricidad (entre 14,8% y 15,3% anual). Por otro lado, la aplicación conjunta de los impuestos al CO2, MP, SO2 y NOX reduce significativamente las emisiones de CO2 (entre 16,0% y 38,0%), el consumo de combustible (entre 15,0% y 32,0%) y la generación de electricidad (entre 16,0% y 33,0%). Específicamente, los impuestos al MP, SO2 y NOX no presentan efectos robustos al considerar todas las centrales termoeléctricas. Sin embargo, la aplicación conjunta de los impuestos al CO2, MP, SO2 y NOX muestra reducciones estadísticamente significativas al excluir centrales termoeléctricas a biomasa o menor tamaño, evidenciando heterogeneidad en las respuestas. En conjunto, los hallazgos confirman la efectividad ambiental del impuesto al carbono revelando efectos diferenciales según tipo de central, y además, sugieren la necesidad de revisar las tasas impositivas y la cobertura del esquema tributario vigente para fortalecer su contribución a las metas climáticas nacionales.
Carbon taxation is a widely recommended economic instrument for addressing the structural causes of the climate crisis. However, most assessments of its effectiveness are based on ex – ante methodologies, while empirical evidence of its causal effects using ex – post econometric techniques remains limited. In Chile, carbon taxes and taxes on local air pollutants (PM, SO2, and NOX) have been applied since 2017 to emissions from large stationary sources, mainly thermoelectric power plants. In this context, the objective of this doctoral thesis is to evaluate the impact of these instruments on CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption, and electricity generation, using the traditional difference-in-differences method and its dynamic extension. To this end, databases at the level of thermoelectric generation units and thermoelectric power plants are used monthly, quarterly, and annually for the period 2014-2022, allowing analysis of the direct and indirect effects of these environmental taxes on the electricity sector. The results show that applying a CO2 tax (USD 5/tCO2) significantly reduces CO2 emissions (between 15.6% and 18.0% annually), fossil fuel consumption (between 13.1% and 14.9% annually), and electricity generation (between 14.8% and 15.3% annually). On the other hand, the joint application of taxes on CO2, PM, SO2, and NOX significantly reduces CO2 emissions (between 16.0% and 38.0%), fuel consumption (between 15.0% and 32.0%), and electricity generation (between 16.0% and 33.0%). Specifically, PM, SO2, and NOX taxes do not have robust effects when considering all thermoelectric power plants. However, the joint application of CO2, PM, SO2, and NOX taxes shows statistically significant reductions when biomass-fired or smaller thermoelectric power plants are excluded, indicating heterogeneity in responses. Overall, the findings confirm the environmental effectiveness of the carbon tax, reveal differential effects by plant type, and suggest the need to review the tax rates and coverage of the current tax scheme to strengthen its contribution to national climate goals.
Carbon taxation is a widely recommended economic instrument for addressing the structural causes of the climate crisis. However, most assessments of its effectiveness are based on ex – ante methodologies, while empirical evidence of its causal effects using ex – post econometric techniques remains limited. In Chile, carbon taxes and taxes on local air pollutants (PM, SO2, and NOX) have been applied since 2017 to emissions from large stationary sources, mainly thermoelectric power plants. In this context, the objective of this doctoral thesis is to evaluate the impact of these instruments on CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption, and electricity generation, using the traditional difference-in-differences method and its dynamic extension. To this end, databases at the level of thermoelectric generation units and thermoelectric power plants are used monthly, quarterly, and annually for the period 2014-2022, allowing analysis of the direct and indirect effects of these environmental taxes on the electricity sector. The results show that applying a CO2 tax (USD 5/tCO2) significantly reduces CO2 emissions (between 15.6% and 18.0% annually), fossil fuel consumption (between 13.1% and 14.9% annually), and electricity generation (between 14.8% and 15.3% annually). On the other hand, the joint application of taxes on CO2, PM, SO2, and NOX significantly reduces CO2 emissions (between 16.0% and 38.0%), fuel consumption (between 15.0% and 32.0%), and electricity generation (between 16.0% and 33.0%). Specifically, PM, SO2, and NOX taxes do not have robust effects when considering all thermoelectric power plants. However, the joint application of CO2, PM, SO2, and NOX taxes shows statistically significant reductions when biomass-fired or smaller thermoelectric power plants are excluded, indicating heterogeneity in responses. Overall, the findings confirm the environmental effectiveness of the carbon tax, reveal differential effects by plant type, and suggest the need to review the tax rates and coverage of the current tax scheme to strengthen its contribution to national climate goals.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al grado de Doctor/a en Ingeniería Industrial.
Keywords
Carbono, Termoelectricidad, Análisis del impacto ambiental