Impacto de la variabilidad climática y el cambio climático sobre el potencial eólico en América del Sur.
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Date
2025
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Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
La energía eólica terrestre es una de las fuentes renovables con mayor participación en la matriz energética global. Sin embargo, las redes eléctricas están cada vez más expuestas a su variabilidad intrínseca. Este trabajo evalúa la influencia de diferentes patrones atmosféricos de gran escala sobre la variabilidad de la velocidad viento a 100m (WS100) y la densidad del potencial eólico (WPD) en América del Sur, y su impacto sobre la producción anual de energía (AEP) en el futuro. Se utilizaron datos de 14 modelos climáticos globales de CMIP6 y de reanálisis del ERA5 para el período histórico 1980 - 2014 y los períodos futuros 2030 – 2069 y 2070 – 2099 bajo el escenario SSP2-4.5. Se aplicó un análisis de funciones ortogonales empíricas (EOF) sobre WS100 en regiones seleccionadas y se calcularon las correlaciones con los principales patrones atmosféricos que influyen sobre el clima de la región. Se calcularon las variaciones de WPD con respecto al período histórico y se estimaron las diferencias futuras de AEP en las regiones más impactadas.
Según nuestros resultados los principales cambios en WPD y AEP se concentran en dos regiones fundamentales: el nordeste de Brasil y la Patagonia. Encontramos que el Anticiclón del Atlántico Sur (SAA) es el principal modulador de WS100 sobre el nordeste de Brasil dado por una correlación positiva, por lo que el aumento en la intensidad del SAA provoca un aumento de WS100 en dicha región. Por otra parte, descubrimos un patrón al que denominamos Patrón Patagonia - Antártica (PAT), y que constituye el principal modulador de WS100 sobre la Patagonia, dado por una correlación negativa, por lo que la fase positiva del PAT provoca una disminución de WS100.
Se prevé un aumento significativo de WPD de más del 30% para 2099 en el nordeste de Brasil, asociado principalmente a una tendencia positiva del SAA, mientras que se proyecta una disminución de hasta un -20% en la Patagonia asociada a una tendencia positiva en el PAT. Estos cambios equivalen a un aumento de AEP de hasta un 18% para 2069 y un 37,6% para 2099 en el nordeste de Brasil, mientras que en la Patagonia se proyecta una disminución de hasta un -33,6% para 2069 y un -33,8% para 2099. La principal contribución de este trabajo es que permite comprender los mecanismos atmosféricos que influyen en las variaciones a largo plazo de WPD y AEP. Esto es de gran relevancia para la industria eólica en la planificación del sistema y la evaluación de riesgos en proyectos eólicos actuales y futuros en América del Sur.
On-shore wind energy is one of the renewable sources with the largest share in the global energy mix. However, electricity grids are increasingly exposed to their intrinsic variability. This work evaluates the influence of different large-scale atmospheric patterns on the variability of 100m wind speed (WS100) and wind power density (WPD) in South America, and their impact on future annual energy production (AEP). Data from 14 CMIP6 global climate models and ERA5 reanalysis were used for the historical period 1980–2014 and the future periods 2030–2069 and 2070–2099 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to WS100 in selected regions, and correlations with the main atmospheric patterns influencing the region climate were calculated. WPD variations relating to the historical period were calculated, and future AEP differences were estimated in the most impacted regions. According to our results, the main changes in WPD and AEP are concentrated in two key regions: northeast Brazil and Patagonia. We found that the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) is the main modulator of WS100 over northeast Brazil, with a direct relationship, such that an increase in SAA intensity causes an increase in WS100 and vice versa. We discovered a pattern centered in the Drake Passage, which we named the Patagonia-Antarctica (PAT) pattern, which constitutes the main modulator of WS100 over Patagonia. The positive phase of the PAT causes a decrease in WS100 and vice versa. A significant increase in WPD of more than 30% is projected by 2099 in northeast Brazil, mainly associated with a positive SAA trend, while a decrease of up to -20% is projected in Patagonia associated with a positive PAT trend. These changes are equivalent to an AEP increase up to 18% by 2069 and 37.6% by 2099 in Northeast Brazil, while in Patagonia a decrease up to -33.6% by 2069 and -33.8% by 2099 is projected. The main contribution of this work is that it allows an understanding of the atmospheric mechanisms influencing long-term variations in WPD and AEP. This is of great relevance to the wind industry in system planning and risk assessment for current and future wind projects in South America.
On-shore wind energy is one of the renewable sources with the largest share in the global energy mix. However, electricity grids are increasingly exposed to their intrinsic variability. This work evaluates the influence of different large-scale atmospheric patterns on the variability of 100m wind speed (WS100) and wind power density (WPD) in South America, and their impact on future annual energy production (AEP). Data from 14 CMIP6 global climate models and ERA5 reanalysis were used for the historical period 1980–2014 and the future periods 2030–2069 and 2070–2099 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to WS100 in selected regions, and correlations with the main atmospheric patterns influencing the region climate were calculated. WPD variations relating to the historical period were calculated, and future AEP differences were estimated in the most impacted regions. According to our results, the main changes in WPD and AEP are concentrated in two key regions: northeast Brazil and Patagonia. We found that the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) is the main modulator of WS100 over northeast Brazil, with a direct relationship, such that an increase in SAA intensity causes an increase in WS100 and vice versa. We discovered a pattern centered in the Drake Passage, which we named the Patagonia-Antarctica (PAT) pattern, which constitutes the main modulator of WS100 over Patagonia. The positive phase of the PAT causes a decrease in WS100 and vice versa. A significant increase in WPD of more than 30% is projected by 2099 in northeast Brazil, mainly associated with a positive SAA trend, while a decrease of up to -20% is projected in Patagonia associated with a positive PAT trend. These changes are equivalent to an AEP increase up to 18% by 2069 and 37.6% by 2099 in Northeast Brazil, while in Patagonia a decrease up to -33.6% by 2069 and -33.8% by 2099 is projected. The main contribution of this work is that it allows an understanding of the atmospheric mechanisms influencing long-term variations in WPD and AEP. This is of great relevance to the wind industry in system planning and risk assessment for current and future wind projects in South America.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al grado de Doctor/a en Energías.
Keywords
Energía eólica, Cambios climáticos, Producción de energía eléctrica