Estimación del caudal hídrico en contexto de cambio climático RCP (8,5) de 17 SSCS costeras del centro de Chile.
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Date
2024
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Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
Con el Cambio Climático (CC) se espera fuertes alteraciones en ecosistemas loticos, incluyendo cambios en el régimen de caudal. Chile tiene una alta vulnerabilidad al CC, lo que exacerbaría la escasez hídrica, por lo que es necesario generar estrategias para enfrentarlos. Las modelaciones hídricas bajo distintos escenarios climáticos es una herramienta cada vez más utilizada para la toma de decisiones, se utilizan diversos modelos para simular procesos hidrológicos a escala de cuenca, tal como N-SPECT. Se modelaron diecisiete SSCS hidrográficas costeras bajo un escenario de cambio climático RCP 8,5, en la cordillera de la costa zona centro sur de Chile, teniendo en cuenta el factor Incendios, para estimar el impacto de la disminución de las precipitaciones en los caudales. Este estudio viene a reducir las brechas de conocimiento en base a CC en las Subsubcuencas (SSCS) del centro sur de Chile. Resultando en una disminución en la precipitación en todos los modelos climáticos, en promedio disminuirá un 63,8% para el futuro. La modelación hídrica indicó que en promedio los caudales futuros disminuirán en 2m3/s/km2. La media de los modelos climáticos mostró un porcentaje de cambio, mayor a un 78,6% en todas las SSCS, pero no superara el 93% de cambio del caudal final. En conclusión, la disminución de las precipitaciones por cambio climático conduciría a una disminución en el caudal futuro. Se recomienda la modelación hídrica como una herramienta necesaria para la evaluación de los planes de mitigación y adaptación al cambio climático.
With Climate Change (CC), strong alterations are expected in lotic ecosystems, including changes in the flow regime. Chile has a high vulnerability to CC, which would exacerbate water scarcity, so it is necessary to generate strategies to confront them. Water modeling under different climate scenarios is an increasingly used tool for decision making; various models are used to simulate hydrological processes at the basin scale, such as N-SPECT. Seventeen coastal hydrographic SSCS were modeled under a RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, in the coastal mountain range in the south-central area of Chile, taking into account the Fires factor, to estimate the impact of the decrease in precipitation on flows. This study aims to reduce the knowledge gaps based on CC in the Sub-sub-basins (SSCS) of south-central Chile. Resulting in a decrease in precipitation in all climate models, on average it will decrease by 63.8% for the future. Water modeling indicated that on average future flows will decrease by 2m3/s/km2. The means of the climate models showed a percentage change, greater than 78.6% in all the SSCS, but it will not exceed the 93% change in the final flow. In conclusion, the decrease in precipitation due to climate change would lead to a decrease in future flow. Water modeling is recommended as a necessary tool for the evaluation of mitigation and adaptation plans to climate change.
With Climate Change (CC), strong alterations are expected in lotic ecosystems, including changes in the flow regime. Chile has a high vulnerability to CC, which would exacerbate water scarcity, so it is necessary to generate strategies to confront them. Water modeling under different climate scenarios is an increasingly used tool for decision making; various models are used to simulate hydrological processes at the basin scale, such as N-SPECT. Seventeen coastal hydrographic SSCS were modeled under a RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, in the coastal mountain range in the south-central area of Chile, taking into account the Fires factor, to estimate the impact of the decrease in precipitation on flows. This study aims to reduce the knowledge gaps based on CC in the Sub-sub-basins (SSCS) of south-central Chile. Resulting in a decrease in precipitation in all climate models, on average it will decrease by 63.8% for the future. Water modeling indicated that on average future flows will decrease by 2m3/s/km2. The means of the climate models showed a percentage change, greater than 78.6% in all the SSCS, but it will not exceed the 93% change in the final flow. In conclusion, the decrease in precipitation due to climate change would lead to a decrease in future flow. Water modeling is recommended as a necessary tool for the evaluation of mitigation and adaptation plans to climate change.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Ingeniera en Conservación de Recursos Naturales
Keywords
Caudales, Cambio climático, Modelos hidrológicos