Polarización electoral en Chile: Evolución desde 1989 – 2021
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Date
2024
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
La polarización es un fenómeno que implica la división de la sociedad en dos o más grupos con diferencias marcadas. La confrontación de opiniones políticas es actualmente una de las principales causas del distanciamiento ideológico. Esta memoria de título se centra en mapear la polarización a nivel regional, además de analizar cómo factores socioeconómicos han influido en la polarización electoral en Chile. Lo anterior se realiza con los datos de las elecciones presidenciales entregados por el Servicio Electoral de Chile, para las elecciones entre 1989-2021. Además, se extraen los datos de la Encuesta de Caracterización Socioeconómica Nacional en sus versiones 1990, 1992, 1998, 2003, 2009, 2013, 2017 y 2020. Para el cálculo de los niveles de polarización electoral se utiliza el concepto de Antagonismo y la métrica Polarización Electoral.
El análisis demostró que los niveles de polarización han presentado variaciones significativas desde el fin de la dictadura de Pinochet. Las elecciones presidenciales de 1989 muestran altos niveles de polarización electoral. En las siguientes elecciones los niveles disminuyen, de distinta forma en cada región. Para 2021, la polarización aumentó de manera significativa en todas las regiones particularmente en la Región de Atacama. La polarización electoral no es uniforme en todo el país y está estrechamente relacionada a condiciones socioeconómicas específicas de cada región. Mediante la realización de modelos de estimación, se obtuvo que las variables ruralidad, pobreza, desempleo y escolaridad tienen un efecto positivo y significativo para explicar los niveles de polarización electoral. Las dificultades económicas intensificarían las divisiones políticas y los altos niveles de educación provocarían que la polarización electoral aumente.
Se recomienda continuar los análisis de polarización electoral con los datos de los años posteriores y para otro tipo de elecciones políticas, lo cual contribuirá significativamente en la comprensión de estos fenómenos.
Polarization is a phenomenon that involves the division of society into two or more groups with marked differences. The confrontation of political opinions is currently one of the main causes of ideological distancing. This thesis focuses on mapping polarization at the regional level and analyzing how socioeconomic factors have influenced election polarization in Chile. This is done with the data from the presidential election provided by the Electoral Service of Chile, for the elections between 1989-2021. Additionally, data is extracted from the National Socioeconomic Characterization Survey in its versions 1990, 1992, 1998, 2003, 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2020. The concept of Antagonism and Electoral Polarization metric are used to calculate levels of electoral polarization. The analysis showed that polarization levels have presented significant variations since the end of Pinochet dictatorship. The 1989 presidential elections show high levels of electoral polarization. In the subsequent elections, the levels decreased, differently in each region. By 2021, polarization increased significantly in all regions, particularly in the Region de Atacama. Electoral polarization is not uniform throughout the country and is closely related to specific socioeconomic conditions in each region. Through the estimation of models, it was obtained that the variables rurality, poverty, unemployment and schooling have a positive and significant effect to explain the levels of electoral polarization. Economic difficulties would intensify political divisions and high levels of education would cause electoral polarization to increase. It is recommended to continue the analysis of electoral polarization with data from subsequent years and for other types of political elections, which will contribute significantly to the understanding of these phenomena.
Polarization is a phenomenon that involves the division of society into two or more groups with marked differences. The confrontation of political opinions is currently one of the main causes of ideological distancing. This thesis focuses on mapping polarization at the regional level and analyzing how socioeconomic factors have influenced election polarization in Chile. This is done with the data from the presidential election provided by the Electoral Service of Chile, for the elections between 1989-2021. Additionally, data is extracted from the National Socioeconomic Characterization Survey in its versions 1990, 1992, 1998, 2003, 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2020. The concept of Antagonism and Electoral Polarization metric are used to calculate levels of electoral polarization. The analysis showed that polarization levels have presented significant variations since the end of Pinochet dictatorship. The 1989 presidential elections show high levels of electoral polarization. In the subsequent elections, the levels decreased, differently in each region. By 2021, polarization increased significantly in all regions, particularly in the Region de Atacama. Electoral polarization is not uniform throughout the country and is closely related to specific socioeconomic conditions in each region. Through the estimation of models, it was obtained that the variables rurality, poverty, unemployment and schooling have a positive and significant effect to explain the levels of electoral polarization. Economic difficulties would intensify political divisions and high levels of education would cause electoral polarization to increase. It is recommended to continue the analysis of electoral polarization with data from subsequent years and for other types of political elections, which will contribute significantly to the understanding of these phenomena.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al Título de Ingeniero Civil Industrial
Keywords
Ideología Aspectos políticos Chile, Democracia Chile, Divisiones políticas