Metodología para el desarrollo de escenarios potenciales para la gestión integrada de recursos hídricos de cuencas
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Date
2025
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Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
Esta tesis desarrolla una metodología para identificar y gestionar conflictos en la gestión de recursos hídricos a escala de cuenca, con un enfoque particular en la cuenca del río Longaví en la región del Maule, Chile. La región enfrenta desafíos significativos debido a la fragmentación de la tierra y la variabilidad hídrica, exacerbados por el cambio climático. Para abordar estos problemas, se integra la socio-hidrología con Modelos Basados en Agentes (SHABM), permitiendo un análisis detallado de las interacciones entre los usuarios del agua. La herramienta tecnológica desarrollada en este estudio utiliza Python y MongoDB para simular y analizar estas interacciones, considerando variables como uso del suelo, demanda hídrica y factores económicos. Los datos recolectados mediante entrevistas, observaciones y encuestas ayudan a alimentar los modelos de simulación, permitiendo examinar cómo diferentes tipos de usuarios con comportamientos egoístas, neutrales y colaboradores toman decisiones bajo diversas condiciones de disponibilidad y supervisión. Los resultados muestran cómo los patrones de decisión varían según los niveles de supervisión y la disponibilidad de agua, destacando diferencias en el comportamiento de riego entre los distintos tipos de usuarios. Estos hallazgos ofrecen perspectivas para la formulación de estrategias de gestión adaptativa del agua, promoviendo la sostenibilidad de los recursos hídricos en la región. Además,esteestudio sugiere nuevas direcciones para investigaciones futuras, incluyendo la ampliación del análisis de datos sociales para comprender mejor los sistemas sociales complejos que influyen en la gestión hídrica. También se recomienda explorar enfoques interdisciplinarios que mejoren la precisión de las simulaciones de sistemas socio-hidrológicos, lo cual podría ayudar a diseñar políticas y estrategias de gestión más efectivas en el contexto de cambio climático. Este trabajo de tesis contribuye al conocimiento de la socio-hidrología y gestión de recursos hídricos, ofreciendo un modelo práctico y replicable para identificar y gestionar conflictos hídricos a escala de cuenca, facilitando una gestión del agua bajo condiciones de cambio climático, variabilidad hídrica y/o cambios sociales.
This thesis develops a methodology for identifying and managing conflicts in water resource management at the basin scale, with a particular focus on the Longaví River basin in the Maule region, Chile. The region faces significant challenges due to land fragmentation and water variability, exacerbated by climate change. To address these issues, socio-hydrology is integrated with Agent-Based Models (ABM), allowing for a detailed analysis of the interactions among water users. The technological tool developed in this study uses Python and MongoDB to simulate and analyze these interactions, considering variables such as land use, water demand, and economic factors. Data collected through interviews, observations, and surveys help feed the simulation models, allowing for the examination of how different types of users with selfish, neutral, and collaborative behaviors make decisions under various conditions of availability and supervision. The results show how decision patterns vary according to the levels of supervision and water availability, highlighting differences in irrigation behavior among different types of users. These findings provide insights for the formulation of adaptive water management strategies, promoting the sustainability of water resources in the region. Moreover, this study suggests new directions for future research, including the expansion of social data analysis to better understand the complex social systems that influence water management. It also recommends exploring interdisciplinary approaches that enhance the accuracy of socio-hydrological system simulations, which could help design more effective management policies and strategies in the context of climate change. This thesis work contributes to the field of socio-hydrology and water resource management, offering a practical and replicable model for identifying and managing water conflicts at the basin scale, facilitating water management under conditions of climate change, water variability, and/or social changes.
This thesis develops a methodology for identifying and managing conflicts in water resource management at the basin scale, with a particular focus on the Longaví River basin in the Maule region, Chile. The region faces significant challenges due to land fragmentation and water variability, exacerbated by climate change. To address these issues, socio-hydrology is integrated with Agent-Based Models (ABM), allowing for a detailed analysis of the interactions among water users. The technological tool developed in this study uses Python and MongoDB to simulate and analyze these interactions, considering variables such as land use, water demand, and economic factors. Data collected through interviews, observations, and surveys help feed the simulation models, allowing for the examination of how different types of users with selfish, neutral, and collaborative behaviors make decisions under various conditions of availability and supervision. The results show how decision patterns vary according to the levels of supervision and water availability, highlighting differences in irrigation behavior among different types of users. These findings provide insights for the formulation of adaptive water management strategies, promoting the sustainability of water resources in the region. Moreover, this study suggests new directions for future research, including the expansion of social data analysis to better understand the complex social systems that influence water management. It also recommends exploring interdisciplinary approaches that enhance the accuracy of socio-hydrological system simulations, which could help design more effective management policies and strategies in the context of climate change. This thesis work contributes to the field of socio-hydrology and water resource management, offering a practical and replicable model for identifying and managing water conflicts at the basin scale, facilitating water management under conditions of climate change, water variability, and/or social changes.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al grado de Doctor en Recursos Hídricos y Energía para la Agricultura
Keywords
Recursos hídricos, Cambio climático, Uso del suelo