Análisis sobre la influencia de variables territoriales y ocurrencias históricas para determinar el riesgo de incendios forestales en la Cordillera de Nahuelbuta, Centro-Sur de Chile.
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Date
2024
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Publisher
Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
Gran parte de la Cordillera de Nahuelbuta presenta una problemática socioambiental que históricamente ha originado importantes cambios en el paisaje por diversas causas territoriales y ambientales. En las últimas décadas, una de las modificaciones más relevantes del paisaje ha sido producto de los incendios forestales, afectando, no solo, la infraestructura crítica de las áreas pobladas, sino también, aquellos elementos de alta vulnerabilidad como el hábitat de especies vegetales y animales. La determinación del riesgo de incendios forestales a través del análisis de variables territoriales de la Cordillera de Nahuelbuta corresponde al objetivo investigativo del presente trabajo. Definiendo al riesgo como un producto de las amenazas y la vulnerabilidad y por medio de la asignación de variables tales como: ignición, propagación e impacto se logró clasificar el riesgo con distintas ponderaciones en cuanto a su magnitud. Los resultados más relevantes ilustran que, la mayor cobertura espacial de la Cordillera de Nahuelbuta obtiene una clasificación de riesgo 4 con un 48,68% con 319.630 ha. El análisis histórico comparativo indica una alta correlación, con el 95% de confianza, entre las distintas clasificaciones de riesgos y los focos de incendios ocurridos entre los años 2012 y 2022 según la cobertura espacial. Las distintas clases de riesgos representan efectivamente la relación espacial entre el área de estudio y las variables de cada grupo de riesgo considerando al modelo aplicado como un buen estimador de riesgos de incendios forestales.
Most of the Nahuelbuta Mountain Range presents a socio-environmental problem that historically has caused important changes in the landscape due to various territorial and environmental causes. In recent decades, one of the most relevant modifications to the landscape has been the result of forest fires, affecting not only the critical infrastructure of populated areas, but also those highly vulnerable elements such as the habitat of plant and animal species. . . The determination of the risk of forest fires through the analysis of territorial variables of the Nahuelbuta Mountain Range corresponds to the research objective of this work. By defining risk as a product of threats and vulnerability and through the assignment of variables such as: ignition, propagation and impact, it was possible to classify the risk with different weights in terms of its magnitude. The most relevant results illustrate that the greatest spatial coverage of the Nahuelbuta Mountain Range obtains a risk classification of 4 with 48.68% with 319,630 ha. The comparative historical analysis indicates a high quote, with 95% confidence, between the different risk classifications and the sources of fires that occurred between the years 2012 and 2022 according to spatial coverage. The different risk classes effectively represent the spatial relationship between the study area and the variables of each risk group, considering the applied model as a good forest fire risk estimator.
Most of the Nahuelbuta Mountain Range presents a socio-environmental problem that historically has caused important changes in the landscape due to various territorial and environmental causes. In recent decades, one of the most relevant modifications to the landscape has been the result of forest fires, affecting not only the critical infrastructure of populated areas, but also those highly vulnerable elements such as the habitat of plant and animal species. . . The determination of the risk of forest fires through the analysis of territorial variables of the Nahuelbuta Mountain Range corresponds to the research objective of this work. By defining risk as a product of threats and vulnerability and through the assignment of variables such as: ignition, propagation and impact, it was possible to classify the risk with different weights in terms of its magnitude. The most relevant results illustrate that the greatest spatial coverage of the Nahuelbuta Mountain Range obtains a risk classification of 4 with 48.68% with 319,630 ha. The comparative historical analysis indicates a high quote, with 95% confidence, between the different risk classifications and the sources of fires that occurred between the years 2012 and 2022 according to spatial coverage. The different risk classes effectively represent the spatial relationship between the study area and the variables of each risk group, considering the applied model as a good forest fire risk estimator.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al grado de Magíster en Análisis Geográfico
Keywords
Incendios forestales, Montañas