Análisis del cambio climático entre 1900 y 2020 en la Región de Atacama, Chile.
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Date
2024
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Publisher
Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
El cambio climático representa uno de los desafíos más apremiantes del siglo XXI, con impactos significativos en los sistemas naturales y humanos a nivel global. Las alteraciones en los patrones de temperatura, precipitación y eventos extremos están reconfigurando el panorama ambiental en diversas regiones del mundo. En este contexto, las zonas áridas y semiáridas, como la Región de Atacama, son particularmente vulnerables a estas transformaciones climáticas, dada su inherente escasez de recursos hídricos y l a fragilidad de sus ecosistemas. La comprensión detallada de las tendencias climáticas locales se vuelve, por tanto, crucial para la planificación y adaptación a largo plazo.
Esta investigación se enfocó en el evaluación e identificación de tendencias de cambio climático en la región de Atacama entre 1900 y 2020. Utilizando datos de precipitaciones, caudales y temperaturas provenientes de la Dirección General de Aguas y los Anuarios Climatológicos, se aplicaron métodos estadísticos no paramétricos como los tests de MannKendall, Sen y Pettitt para detectar y cuantificar tendencias significativas y cambios abruptos en las series temporales. Los resultados revelaron patrones claros: una tendencia general decreciente en los caudales, especialmente en la cuenca del río Copiapó; un aumento significativo en las temperaturas máximas y medias; y una tendencia predominantemente decreciente en las temperaturas mínimas. Las precipitaciones, aunque con alta variabilidad, mostraron algunas tendencias puntuales de disminución en invierno y aumento en otoño. Adicionalmente, se desarrolló un modelo de regresión para predecir caudales máximos instantáneos anuales, comparando enfoques lineales y no lineales. El modelo no lineal, demostró mayor precisión, especialmente en la predicción de eventos de caudal alto. Sin embargo, su aplicación se vio limitada por la disponibilidad de datos. Estos hallazgos no solo proporcionan una base sólida para comprender los cambios climáticos en la Región de Atacama, sino que también ofrecen herramientas valiosas para la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la planificación de infraestructura resiliente. La investigación destaca la urgencia de implementar estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático en esta región vulnerable, considerando las tendencias observadas en las variables hidrometeorológicas clave.
Climate change represents one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century, with significant impacts on natural and human systems globally. Alterations in temperature patterns, precipitation, and extreme events are reshaping the environmental landscape in various regions of the world. In this context, arid and semi-arid zones, such as the Atacama Region, are particularly vulnerable to these climatic transformations, given their inherent scarcity of water resources and the fragility of their ecosystems. A detailed understanding of local climate trends therefore becomes crucial for long-term planning and adaptation. This research focused on the evaluation and identification of climate change trends in the Atacama Region between 1900 and 2020. Using precipitation, streamflow, and temperature data from the Dirección General de Aguas and the Anuarios Climatológicos, non-parametric statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall, Sen and Pettitt tests were applied to detect and quantify significant trends and abrupt changes in the time series. The results revealed clear patterns: a general decreasing trend in streamflows, especially in the Copiapó river basin; a significant increase in maximum and mean temperatures; and a predominantly decreasing trend in minimum temperatures. Precipitation, although highly variable, showed some specific trends of decrease in Winter and increase in autumn. Additionally, a regression model was developed to predict annual instantaneous maximum streamflows, comparing linear and non-linear approaches. The non-linear model demonstrated greater accuracy, especially in predicting high flow events. However, its application was limited by data availability. These findings not only provide a solid basis for understanding climate changes in the Atacama Region, but also offer valuable tools for water resource management and resilient infrastructure planning. The research highlights the urgency of implementing climate change adaptation strategies in this vulnerable Region, considering the observed trends in key hydrometeorological variables.
Climate change represents one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century, with significant impacts on natural and human systems globally. Alterations in temperature patterns, precipitation, and extreme events are reshaping the environmental landscape in various regions of the world. In this context, arid and semi-arid zones, such as the Atacama Region, are particularly vulnerable to these climatic transformations, given their inherent scarcity of water resources and the fragility of their ecosystems. A detailed understanding of local climate trends therefore becomes crucial for long-term planning and adaptation. This research focused on the evaluation and identification of climate change trends in the Atacama Region between 1900 and 2020. Using precipitation, streamflow, and temperature data from the Dirección General de Aguas and the Anuarios Climatológicos, non-parametric statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall, Sen and Pettitt tests were applied to detect and quantify significant trends and abrupt changes in the time series. The results revealed clear patterns: a general decreasing trend in streamflows, especially in the Copiapó river basin; a significant increase in maximum and mean temperatures; and a predominantly decreasing trend in minimum temperatures. Precipitation, although highly variable, showed some specific trends of decrease in Winter and increase in autumn. Additionally, a regression model was developed to predict annual instantaneous maximum streamflows, comparing linear and non-linear approaches. The non-linear model demonstrated greater accuracy, especially in predicting high flow events. However, its application was limited by data availability. These findings not only provide a solid basis for understanding climate changes in the Atacama Region, but also offer valuable tools for water resource management and resilient infrastructure planning. The research highlights the urgency of implementing climate change adaptation strategies in this vulnerable Region, considering the observed trends in key hydrometeorological variables.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Ingeniero Civil
Keywords
Cambio climático, Cambios climáticos Chile, Clima de regiones aridas Chile