Estimación del costo de capital en proyectos forestales en Chile mediante el modelo CAPM para empresas que no cotizan en bolsa.
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Date
2025
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Publisher
Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
El presente estudio, se centró en la estimación del costo de capital para proyectos forestales en Chile utilizando un modelo ajustado de valoración de activos de capital, conocido por su abreviación en inglés como CAPM, adaptado a las particularidades del sector y empresas que no cotizan en la bolsa. A partir de una metodología que combina datos locales e internacionales, se determinó una tasa de descuento ajustada del 9,83%, que incorporó los riesgos del sector, como la prima por riesgo país y la prima por liquidez. Los resultados destacaron la importancia de considerar factores para reflejar adecuadamente las condiciones económicas y políticas de los mercados emergentes en Chile. Además, se demostró que, a pesar de las limitaciones del modelo, sigue siendo una herramienta valiosa para la evaluación de inversiones en el sector forestal chileno. Las conclusiones acentuaron la necesidad de un enfoque integral que combine herramientas avanzadas de modelado para maximizar la utilidad del CAPM, lo que permitiría a los inversores optimizar las decisiones financieras y promover la sostenibilidad en la gestión forestal.
This study focused on estimating the cost of capital for forestry projects in Chile using an adjusted capital asset pricing model, known by its abbreviation in English as CAPM, adapted to the particularities of the sector and companies that are not listed on the stock exchange. Based on a methodology that combines local and international data, an adjusted discount rate of 9.83% was determined, which incorporated the risks of the sector, such as the country risk premium and the liquidity premium. The results highlighted the importance of considering factors to adequately reflect the economic and political conditions of emerging markets in Chile. In addition, it was demonstrated that, despite the limitations of the model, it remains a valuable tool for evaluating investments in the Chilean forestry sector. The conclusions emphasized the need for a comprehensive approach that combines advanced modeling tools to maximize the utility of the CAPM, which would allow investors to optimize financial decisions and promote sustainability in forest management.
This study focused on estimating the cost of capital for forestry projects in Chile using an adjusted capital asset pricing model, known by its abbreviation in English as CAPM, adapted to the particularities of the sector and companies that are not listed on the stock exchange. Based on a methodology that combines local and international data, an adjusted discount rate of 9.83% was determined, which incorporated the risks of the sector, such as the country risk premium and the liquidity premium. The results highlighted the importance of considering factors to adequately reflect the economic and political conditions of emerging markets in Chile. In addition, it was demonstrated that, despite the limitations of the model, it remains a valuable tool for evaluating investments in the Chilean forestry sector. The conclusions emphasized the need for a comprehensive approach that combines advanced modeling tools to maximize the utility of the CAPM, which would allow investors to optimize financial decisions and promote sustainability in forest management.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Ingeniero Forestal
Keywords
Economía forestal, Análisis de inversiones, Proyectos forestales