Percepción del riesgo de inundaciones y asistencia recibida en la comuna de San Fernando.
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Date
2025
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Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
En este estudio se analiza la percepción del riesgo de inundaciones y la ayuda recibida en San Fernando, ubicado en las cuencas de los ríos Tinguiririca y Antivero, Chile. Se busca entender cómo las características sociodemográficas, la cohesión social y la experiencia previa con inundaciones influyen en la percepción del riesgo, y en la recepción de asistencia durante las emergencias.
Para realizar el análisis se utilizan los resultados de una encuesta, realizada en 2024 en el marco del proyecto anillo ATE220021 “Cambio climático y la socio-hidrología de las inundaciones” financiado por ANID. Esta encuesta se aplicó a 380 hogares en la comuna de San Fernando, y permitió recopilar información sobre las características sociodemográficas y de la vivienda, la percepción del riesgo de inundaciones, la caracterización de los hogares y viviendas, la experiencia previa con eventos de inundación y la preparación ante estos eventos.
Se realizó un análisis univariado de los datos obtenidos de la encuesta para describir las características sociodemográficas y la percepción de riesgo de inundaciones, la preparación, la preocupación y la ayuda recibida por los hogares. Se utilizó regresión ordinal para estudiar la relación entre las variables sociodemográficas y la percepción del riesgo, y regresión logística binaria para analizar la recepción de ayuda. Además, se aplicaron tablas de contingencia y pruebas de chi-cuadrado para explorar asociaciones entre la percepción del riesgo y la ayuda.
El estudio evidenció que, en San Fernando, la preparación frente a inundaciones es mayormente reactiva y condicionada por factores estructurales y comunitarios más que por la experiencia directa con el riesgo. La percepción del riesgo se ve influida principalmente por la exposición indirecta al evento y por condiciones socioeconómicas, mientras que la recepción de ayuda está determinada por la afectación del entorno, la presencia de personas con discapacidad en el hogar y el nivel socioeconómico, mostrando diferencias respecto a otros territorios. Se constató, además, que las redes sociales y la trayectoria institucional de los hogares juegan un rol relevante tanto en la adopción de medidas como en el acceso a apoyo post-inundación.
This study analyzes flood risk perception and the assistance received in the communities of San Fernando, located in the Tinguiririca River basin in Chile. The objective is to understand how sociodemographic characteristics, social cohesion, and prior flood experience influence both risk perception and the reception of emergency assistance. The analysis is based on data from a survey conducted in 2024 as part of the project "Climate Change and the Socio-hydrology of Floods," funded by ANID. The survey was administered to 380 households in the commune of San Fernando and gathered information on household and housing characteristics, flood risk perception, previous flood experience, and preparedness for such events. To analyze the survey data, a univariate analysis was carried out to describe the sociodemographic characteristics, flood risk perception, household preparedness, concern, and the assistance received. Ordinal regression was used to examine the relationship between sociodemographic variables and risk perception, while binary logistic regression was applied to assess the factors associated with receiving assistance. Additionally, contingency tables and chi-square tests were used to explore associations between risk perception and aid. This study analyzes the factors influencing flood preparedness, risk perception, and access to post-disaster assistance among households in San Fernando, Chile. Based on statistical models and comparative analysis, the findings reveal that preparedness levels remain generally low and are shaped more by structural and community-level variables—such as socioeconomic status, neighborhood interaction, and prior institutional support—than by direct exposure to flood events. Risk perception is primarily influenced by indirect exposure and perceived vulnerability, while access to aid is determined largely by the physical impact on the household’s surroundings and specific vulnerability indicators, such as the presence of a person with a disability. Notably, higher-income households were also more likely to receive assistance, suggesting potential inequalities in institutional outreach. The results underscore the need for a more equitable, preventive, and socially grounded risk management approach that strengthens local resilience and integrates both hydrological modeling and sociocultural dimensions of disaster response.
This study analyzes flood risk perception and the assistance received in the communities of San Fernando, located in the Tinguiririca River basin in Chile. The objective is to understand how sociodemographic characteristics, social cohesion, and prior flood experience influence both risk perception and the reception of emergency assistance. The analysis is based on data from a survey conducted in 2024 as part of the project "Climate Change and the Socio-hydrology of Floods," funded by ANID. The survey was administered to 380 households in the commune of San Fernando and gathered information on household and housing characteristics, flood risk perception, previous flood experience, and preparedness for such events. To analyze the survey data, a univariate analysis was carried out to describe the sociodemographic characteristics, flood risk perception, household preparedness, concern, and the assistance received. Ordinal regression was used to examine the relationship between sociodemographic variables and risk perception, while binary logistic regression was applied to assess the factors associated with receiving assistance. Additionally, contingency tables and chi-square tests were used to explore associations between risk perception and aid. This study analyzes the factors influencing flood preparedness, risk perception, and access to post-disaster assistance among households in San Fernando, Chile. Based on statistical models and comparative analysis, the findings reveal that preparedness levels remain generally low and are shaped more by structural and community-level variables—such as socioeconomic status, neighborhood interaction, and prior institutional support—than by direct exposure to flood events. Risk perception is primarily influenced by indirect exposure and perceived vulnerability, while access to aid is determined largely by the physical impact on the household’s surroundings and specific vulnerability indicators, such as the presence of a person with a disability. Notably, higher-income households were also more likely to receive assistance, suggesting potential inequalities in institutional outreach. The results underscore the need for a more equitable, preventive, and socially grounded risk management approach that strengthens local resilience and integrates both hydrological modeling and sociocultural dimensions of disaster response.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Ingeniero/a Civil.
Keywords
Inundaciones Chile, Percepcion del riesgo, Emergencias, Hidrología, Cambios climáticos