La percepción del riesgo y la prevención de incendios forestales en Concepción, Chile: un estudio de métodos mixtos con implicaciones para la planificación territorial.
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Date
2025
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Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
La presente investigación examina la percepción del riesgo y la prevención de los incendios forestales en el Área Metropolitana de Concepción, Chile, destacando sus implicaciones para la planificación territorial. A través de un enfoque mixto (Sequential explanatory design) que combinó cuestionarios con residentes y entrevistas con expertos, se buscó responder dos preguntas principales: cómo perciben distintos grupos de población el riesgo y la prevención de incendios, y en qué medida estas percepciones son consideradas en los instrumentos de planificación territorial y en la toma de decisiones.
Los resultados cuantitativos indicaron un nivel de preocupación muy alto en la población general que ha aumentado en las últimas décadas. Sin embargo, no fue posible identificar diferencias significativas entre grupos socio-demográficos debido al tamaño limitado de la muestra. El hallazgo central de estudio del análisis fue la paradoja de la percepción del riesgo. La encuesta ciudadana reveló una correlación débil a moderada entre la preocupación por los incendios forestales y la sensación subjetiva de estar preparado, lo que contrasta claramente con las entrevistas a los expertos, que confirman la existencia de la paradoja en Concepción. Se argumenta aquí que este resultado se refiere menos a la prevención real que a la autoeficacia percibida y pone de manifiesto la discrepancia entre la preparación percibida y la real. Además, los resultados evidencian una confianza limitada hacia las instituciones, ya que la mayoría de los encuestados atribuye su seguridad a acciones individuales más que a medidas estatales o municipales.
La investigación confirma que la percepción ciudadana aún no es suficientemente considerada en la planificación territorial en Concepción, lo que amplía la brecha entre medidas oficiales y necesidades locales. La experiencia personal influye en la percepción de riesgo, aunque no siempre en la acción preventiva, y la integración de las perspectivas de la población se ve limitada por barreras institucionales y comunicativas. No obstante, se identifican oportunidades para consolidar una gobernanza territorial más resiliente si se fortalecen los procesos participativos y se articulan con políticas públicas de carácter vinculante.
This research examines the perception of risk and prevention of forest fires in the Metropolitan Area of Concepción, Chile, highlighting its implications for territorial plan ning. Using a mixed approach (sequential explanatory design) that combined ques tionnaires with residents and interviews with experts, we sought to answer two main questions: how do different population groups perceive fire risk and prevention, and to what extent are these perceptions considered in land-use planning instruments and decision-making? The quantitative results indicated a very high level of concern among the general pop ulation, which has increased in recent decades. However, it was not possible to iden tify significant differences between socio-demographic groups due to the limited sam ple size. The central finding of the study was the paradox of risk perception. The citizen survey revealed a weak to moderate correlation between concern about forest fires and the subjective feeling of being prepared, which contrasts sharply with the interviews with experts, who confirm the existence of the paradox in Concepción. It is argued here that this result refers less to actual prevention than to perceived self efficacy and highlights the discrepancy between perceived and actual preparedness. Furthermore, the results show limited trust in institutions, as most respondents attrib ute their safety to individual actions rather than state or municipal measures. The research confirms that citizens' perceptions are still not sufficiently taken into ac count in territorial planning in Concepción, widening the gap between official measures and local needs. Personal experience influences risk perception, although not always preventive action, and the integration of the population's perspectives is limited by institutional and communication barriers. However, opportunities to consol idate more resilient territorial governance are identified if participatory processes are strengthened and articulated with binding public policies.
This research examines the perception of risk and prevention of forest fires in the Metropolitan Area of Concepción, Chile, highlighting its implications for territorial plan ning. Using a mixed approach (sequential explanatory design) that combined ques tionnaires with residents and interviews with experts, we sought to answer two main questions: how do different population groups perceive fire risk and prevention, and to what extent are these perceptions considered in land-use planning instruments and decision-making? The quantitative results indicated a very high level of concern among the general pop ulation, which has increased in recent decades. However, it was not possible to iden tify significant differences between socio-demographic groups due to the limited sam ple size. The central finding of the study was the paradox of risk perception. The citizen survey revealed a weak to moderate correlation between concern about forest fires and the subjective feeling of being prepared, which contrasts sharply with the interviews with experts, who confirm the existence of the paradox in Concepción. It is argued here that this result refers less to actual prevention than to perceived self efficacy and highlights the discrepancy between perceived and actual preparedness. Furthermore, the results show limited trust in institutions, as most respondents attrib ute their safety to individual actions rather than state or municipal measures. The research confirms that citizens' perceptions are still not sufficiently taken into ac count in territorial planning in Concepción, widening the gap between official measures and local needs. Personal experience influences risk perception, although not always preventive action, and the integration of the population's perspectives is limited by institutional and communication barriers. However, opportunities to consol idate more resilient territorial governance are identified if participatory processes are strengthened and articulated with binding public policies.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al grado de Magíster en Ciencias Regionales.
Keywords
Incendios forestales, Planificación local, Ecología social