Modelación del rendimiento del trigo (triticum aestivum l.) con el modelo AquaCrop bajo escenarios de cambio climático en las regiones del Maule y la Araucanía.
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Date
2025
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Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
El cambio climático y la escasez hídrica plantean un desafío para la producción agrícola, especialmente en cultivos esenciales para la alimentación como el trigo (Triticum aestivum L.) producido a nivel nacional con mayor presencia entre las regiones del Maule y la Araucanía. Esta investigación tuvo como objetivo estimar el rendimiento del trigo invernal bajo escenarios de cambio climático en dos localidades con condiciones de clima, suelo y fenologías diferentes utilizando el modelo AquaCrop. Se caracterizó una línea base de 9 años entre 2015 – 2024 con características de clima (evapotranspiración de referencia, temperaturas mínimas y máximas, y precipitación), suelo y comportamiento del cultivo; posteriormente, se simularon cuatro escenarios de cambio climático considerando aumento en las variables de evapotranspiración de referencia, temperaturas mínimas y máximas, y disminución de la variable precipitación; en variaciones de un 5%, 10%, 15% y 20%; finalmente, se evaluaron 2 fechas de siembra diferentes en el peor escenario como medida de manejo agronómico. Los resultados muestran que la disminución de la precipitación durante etapas fundamentales como la floración tiene un impacto determinante en los rendimientos, especialmente en la región del Maule, además, al adelantar la siembra en 2 semanas se observaron mejoras en los rendimientos de ambas regiones.
Climate change and water scarcity pose a challenge for agricultural production, especially in essential food crops such as wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) produced nationally with greater presence between the Maule and Araucanía regions. This research aimed to estimate winter wheat yield under climate change scenarios in two locations with different climate, soil and phenology conditions using the AquaCrop model. A baseline of 9 years between 2015 - 2024 was characterized with climate characteristics (reference evapotranspiration, minimum and maximum temperatures, and precipitation), soil and crop behavior; subsequently, four climate change scenarios were simulated considering an increase in the variables of reference evapotranspiration, minimum and maximum temperatures, and a decrease in the variable precipitation; in variations of 5%, 10%, 15% and 20%; finally, 2 different sowing dates were evaluated in the worst scenario as a measure of agronomic management. The results show that the decrease in precipitation during fundamental stages such as flowering has a decisive impact on yields, especially in the Maule region. In addition, by advancing planting by 2 weeks, significant improvements in yields were observed in both regions.
Climate change and water scarcity pose a challenge for agricultural production, especially in essential food crops such as wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) produced nationally with greater presence between the Maule and Araucanía regions. This research aimed to estimate winter wheat yield under climate change scenarios in two locations with different climate, soil and phenology conditions using the AquaCrop model. A baseline of 9 years between 2015 - 2024 was characterized with climate characteristics (reference evapotranspiration, minimum and maximum temperatures, and precipitation), soil and crop behavior; subsequently, four climate change scenarios were simulated considering an increase in the variables of reference evapotranspiration, minimum and maximum temperatures, and a decrease in the variable precipitation; in variations of 5%, 10%, 15% and 20%; finally, 2 different sowing dates were evaluated in the worst scenario as a measure of agronomic management. The results show that the decrease in precipitation during fundamental stages such as flowering has a decisive impact on yields, especially in the Maule region. In addition, by advancing planting by 2 weeks, significant improvements in yields were observed in both regions.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Ingeniero/a Agrónomo/a.
Keywords
Trigo Rendimiento, Cambios de la temperatura global, Eficiencia del uso del agua