Estudio de prefactibilidad de una nueva organización sin fines de lucro para la promoción costo-efectiva de la salud mental.
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Date
2025
Authors
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Journal ISSN
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Publisher
Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
Alrededor del 10% de las personas adultas en Chile tiene síntomas de depresión (1,6 millones de personas). Existen muchos tratamientos para la depresión, pero la terapia TEAM desarrollada por el Dr. David Burns ha mostrado que es posible la recuperación rápida y duradera, y existe la oportunidad de crear una nueva organización para hacerla accesible en Chile.
El objetivo principal de esta memoria es elaborar un estudio de prefactibilidad para una nueva organización sin fines de lucro enfocada en la promoción costo-efectiva de la salud mental para adultos en Chile.
El estudio parte con un análisis cualitativo del entorno, de los requisitos legales y de cómo funcionaría la organización. Luego, se estima la demanda en base a organizaciones similares y las donaciones en base a estadísticas de Google Ads y se estiman los costos necesarios. A continuación, se crea un flujo de caja de un caso base y se evalúa usando el criterio del valor actual neto (VAN). Finalmente, se estudia la robustez de los resultados construyendo diferentes escenarios, analizando la sensibilidad del VAN ante las variables del proyecto y un análisis de riesgo con una simulación Montecarlo.
Se concluye que el entorno chileno es favorable para el proyecto y la legislación chilena permite su realización.
Se determinó una estructura organizacional simple, que incluye el requisito legal de un directorio, un director ejecutivo, un equipo de atención de usuarios y otro de administración y recaudación de fondos.
Por la alta incertidumbre del proyecto, se escoge un horizonte de evaluación de 3 años. En el escenario más probable, el valor actual neto (VAN) calculado con una tasa de descuento del 20% es de 134.280.074. El análisis de riesgo pronostica una probabilidad del 95% de que el proyecto tenga un VAN mayor que 0.
El estudio apoya la decisión de realizar el proyecto, pero se recomienda hacer más estudios, especialmente sobre donaciones, que son el factor que más contribuye a la variabilidad del VAN.
Approximately 10% of adults in Chile have symptoms of depression (1.6 million people). There are many treatments for depression, but TEAM therapy developed by Dr. David Burns has shown that rapid and lasting recovery is possible, and there is an opportunity to create a new organization to make it accessible in Chile. The main objective of this degree project is to develop a prefeasibility study for a new non-profit organization focused on cost-effective mental health promotion for adults in Chile. The study begins with a qualitative analysis of the environment, legal requirements, and how the organization would function. Then, demand is estimated based on similar organizations and donations based on Google Ads statistics, and necessary costs are estimated. Next, a base case cash flow is created and evaluated using the net present value (NPV) criterion. Finally, to study the robustness of the results, different scenarios are created, the sensitivity of the NPV to project variables is analyzed, and a risk analysis is performed using a Monte Carlo simulation. The Chilean environment is favorable for the project and Chilean legislation allows for its implementation. A simple organizational structure was determined, which includes the legal requirement of a board of directors, an executive director, a user service team, and an administration and fundraising team. Due to the high uncertainty of the project, a 3-year evaluation horizon is chosen. In the most likely scenario, the net present value (NPV) calculated with a discount rate of 20% is 134,280,074. The risk analysis predicts a 95% probability that the project will have an NPV greater than 0. The study supports the decision to carry out the project, but more studies are recommended, especially regarding donations, which are the factors that contribute most to NPV variability.
Approximately 10% of adults in Chile have symptoms of depression (1.6 million people). There are many treatments for depression, but TEAM therapy developed by Dr. David Burns has shown that rapid and lasting recovery is possible, and there is an opportunity to create a new organization to make it accessible in Chile. The main objective of this degree project is to develop a prefeasibility study for a new non-profit organization focused on cost-effective mental health promotion for adults in Chile. The study begins with a qualitative analysis of the environment, legal requirements, and how the organization would function. Then, demand is estimated based on similar organizations and donations based on Google Ads statistics, and necessary costs are estimated. Next, a base case cash flow is created and evaluated using the net present value (NPV) criterion. Finally, to study the robustness of the results, different scenarios are created, the sensitivity of the NPV to project variables is analyzed, and a risk analysis is performed using a Monte Carlo simulation. The Chilean environment is favorable for the project and Chilean legislation allows for its implementation. A simple organizational structure was determined, which includes the legal requirement of a board of directors, an executive director, a user service team, and an administration and fundraising team. Due to the high uncertainty of the project, a 3-year evaluation horizon is chosen. In the most likely scenario, the net present value (NPV) calculated with a discount rate of 20% is 134,280,074. The risk analysis predicts a 95% probability that the project will have an NPV greater than 0. The study supports the decision to carry out the project, but more studies are recommended, especially regarding donations, which are the factors that contribute most to NPV variability.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Ingeniero Civil Industrial
Keywords
Evaluación de proyectos, Organismos no gubernamentales, Salud mental