Estimación de caudales máximos instantáneos a partir de caudales medios diarios en cuencas costeras de la zona centro-sur de Chile.
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Date
2025
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Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
En el área de la hidrología, es fundamental la estimación de caudales de diseño que permitan la construcción de infraestructuras hidráulicas, que aseguren un adecuado funcionamiento en caso de ocurrir eventos de magnitudes extremas, previniendo así el colapso o fallas de las obras, con la finalidad de evitar potenciales daños a personas y pérdidas económicas. Sin embargo, en Chile se ha observado que los registros históricos de caudales máximos instantáneos anuales están incompletos o son escasos, lo que dificulta el estudio en diversas áreas del país. Las cuencas costeras no están exentas de esta problemática; por este motivo, se estudiaron las cuencas costeras ubicadas entre las regiones del Libertador General Bernardo O’Higgins y la región del Biobío, con el propósito de estimar caudales máximos instantáneos anuales a partir de la información que se encuentra disponible.
En esta investigación, fueron empleados modelos empíricos mediante modelos de regresión para obtener caudales máximos instantáneos anuales y completar las series de registro; los modelos se ajustaron ingresando variables como caudales medios diarios máximos, parámetros morfométricos, precipitaciones medias y usos de suelo de las cuencas. Las variables más representativas en el ajuste fueron los caudales medios diarios máximos, seguido de las precipitaciones medias de días anteriores a la crecida máxima. Finalmente, luego de completar las series de registro de caudales máximos instantáneos anuales en las cuencas costeras durante el periodo de estudio, se aplicó el análisis de frecuencia con diferentes funciones de densidad de probabilidad eligiendo aquellas con mejor rendimiento en las pruebas de bondad de ajuste Chi-cuadrado y Kolmogórov-Smirnov, siendo las distribuciones Gumbel y Gamma de dos parámetros las de mejor ajuste, y con ellas se estimaron los caudales máximos instantáneos asociados a los periodos de retorno entre 2 y 100 años.
In the field of hydrology, estimating design flows is essential for the construction of hydraulic infrastructures, that ensure proper functioning in the event of extreme magnitude occurrences, thereby preventing the collapse or failure of structures and avoiding potential harm to people and economic losses. However, in Chile, it has been observed that historical records of maximum annual instantaneous flows are incomplete or scarce, which complicates studies in various areas of the country. Coastal watersheds are not exempt from this issue; for this reason, coastal watersheds located between the regions of Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins and Biobío, were studied with the aim of estimating maximum annual instantaneous flows based on the available information. In this research, empirical models were employed using regression models to obtain maximum annual instantaneous flows and complete the record series; the models were adjusted by entering variables such as maximum daily average flows, morphometric parameters, average precipitation, and land use in the watersheds. The most representative variables in the adjustment were the maximum daily average flows, followed by the average precipitation from days prior to the maximum flood. Finally, after completing the record series of maximum annual instantaneous flows in the coastal watersheds during the study period, a frequency analysis was applied using different probability density functions, selecting those with the best performance in the Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of fit tests, with the Gumbel and two-parameter Gamma distributions showing the best fit, and with these, the maximum instantaneous flows associated with return periods between 2 and 100 years were estimated.
In the field of hydrology, estimating design flows is essential for the construction of hydraulic infrastructures, that ensure proper functioning in the event of extreme magnitude occurrences, thereby preventing the collapse or failure of structures and avoiding potential harm to people and economic losses. However, in Chile, it has been observed that historical records of maximum annual instantaneous flows are incomplete or scarce, which complicates studies in various areas of the country. Coastal watersheds are not exempt from this issue; for this reason, coastal watersheds located between the regions of Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins and Biobío, were studied with the aim of estimating maximum annual instantaneous flows based on the available information. In this research, empirical models were employed using regression models to obtain maximum annual instantaneous flows and complete the record series; the models were adjusted by entering variables such as maximum daily average flows, morphometric parameters, average precipitation, and land use in the watersheds. The most representative variables in the adjustment were the maximum daily average flows, followed by the average precipitation from days prior to the maximum flood. Finally, after completing the record series of maximum annual instantaneous flows in the coastal watersheds during the study period, a frequency analysis was applied using different probability density functions, selecting those with the best performance in the Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of fit tests, with the Gumbel and two-parameter Gamma distributions showing the best fit, and with these, the maximum instantaneous flows associated with return periods between 2 and 100 years were estimated.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Ingeniero/a Civil.
Keywords
Caudales, Mediciones hidráulicas, Estructuras hidráulicas