Modelación de oleaje para el pronóstico y la alerta de marejadas.
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Date
2025
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Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
Una marejada es un fenómeno de oleaje que se caracteriza por un incremento en las alturas significativas, periodo, y energía de las olas. Estos eventos afectan el normal funcionamiento costero y pueden representar un riesgo para la vida de las personas. Con el cambio climático se espera que este fenómeno ocurra con mayor frecuencia e intensidad.
La bahía de Coronel es un punto estratégico para el comercio internacional y nacional gracias a su puerto, sin embargo, esta zona no posee un modelo de pronóstico de oleaje gratuito. Frente a un escenario de marejadas el puerto de Coronel se puede ver afectado negativamente, tanto estructuralmente como operacionalmente. Por lo que toma relevancia implementar un sistema de alerta de marejadas específico para la zona, que complemente el sistema actual, evitando así detenciones en su funcionamiento y la pérdida económica que esto representa.
Esta memoria de título tiene como objetivo implementar un modelo de propagación de oleaje de alta resolución de la bahía de Coronel para el pronóstico y alerta de marejadas.
Se realiza una modelación de la bahía de Coronel para entender su comportamiento frente al fenómeno de marejadas. Con este fin se crea una malla anidada a partir de cartas náuticas facilitadas por el SHOA, se implementa el modelo SWAN probando distintas fuentes como condiciones de borde y modificando parámetros físicos para obtener un mejor ajuste.
Se concluye que el modelo implementado genera simulaciones aceptables para la predicción de marejadas. No obstante, presenta una tendencia a amplificar las alturas significativas máximas. En lo relativo a la agitación de la bahía, se concluye que la dirección entrante del oleaje es fundamental en el comportamiento de esta, debido a que se encuentra protegida por la isla Santa María. También se destaca la importancia de implementar herramientas en contextos locales para poder así tomar decisiones acordes a cada contexto.
A storm surge is a wave phenomenon characterized by an increase in significant wave heights, periods, and energy. These events affect normal coastal operations and can pose a risk to human life. With climate change, it is expected that this phenomenon will occur with greater frequency and intensity. The bay of Coronel is a strategic point for both international and national trade due to its port. However, this area lacks a free wave forecasting model. In the event of storm surges, the port of Coronel could be negatively impacted, both structurally and operationally. This highlights the importance of implementing a storm surge alert system specifically designed for the area, which would complement the existing system, preventing operational interruptions and the associated economic losses. This thesis aims to implement a high-resolution wave propagation model for the bay of Coronel to forecast and provide alerts for storm surges. A model of the bay of Coronel is developed to understand its behavior in the face of storm surge events. For this purpose, a nested grid is created based on nautical charts provided by SHOA, and the SWAN model is implemented, testing various sources as boundary conditions and adjusting physical parameters to achieve better accuracy. It is concluded that the implemented model produces acceptable simulations for storm surge prediction. However, it tends to overestimate the maximum significant wave heights. Regarding the bay’s agitation, it is concluded that the incoming wave direction is crucial to its behavior, as it is protected by Santa María Island. Additionally, the importance of implementing tools tailored to local contexts is emphasized, enabling decisions that align with the specific characteristics of each area.
A storm surge is a wave phenomenon characterized by an increase in significant wave heights, periods, and energy. These events affect normal coastal operations and can pose a risk to human life. With climate change, it is expected that this phenomenon will occur with greater frequency and intensity. The bay of Coronel is a strategic point for both international and national trade due to its port. However, this area lacks a free wave forecasting model. In the event of storm surges, the port of Coronel could be negatively impacted, both structurally and operationally. This highlights the importance of implementing a storm surge alert system specifically designed for the area, which would complement the existing system, preventing operational interruptions and the associated economic losses. This thesis aims to implement a high-resolution wave propagation model for the bay of Coronel to forecast and provide alerts for storm surges. A model of the bay of Coronel is developed to understand its behavior in the face of storm surge events. For this purpose, a nested grid is created based on nautical charts provided by SHOA, and the SWAN model is implemented, testing various sources as boundary conditions and adjusting physical parameters to achieve better accuracy. It is concluded that the implemented model produces acceptable simulations for storm surge prediction. However, it tends to overestimate the maximum significant wave heights. Regarding the bay’s agitation, it is concluded that the incoming wave direction is crucial to its behavior, as it is protected by Santa María Island. Additionally, the importance of implementing tools tailored to local contexts is emphasized, enabling decisions that align with the specific characteristics of each area.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Ingeniero/a Civil.
Keywords
Simulación por computadores, Costas, Pronósticos hidrológicos