Estimación de un sistema de demanda residencial de bienes energéticos y transporte para evaluar políticas climáticas en Uruguay
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Date
2024
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
Esta investigación evalúa el efecto de algunas políticas climáticas sobre el consumo de bienes energéticos y transporte público, el bienestar del consumidor y las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) en Uruguay. Para lo anterior, se estima un sistema de demanda a través de los modelos Cobb-Douglas, Linear Expenditure System (LES), Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions (Translog), Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) y Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS). Estos modelos se aplican sobre datos reales de la Encuesta Nacional de Gastos e Ingresos de los Hogares (ENGIH) 2016-2017 de Uruguay. Luego, las elasticidades de demanda obtenidas con estos modelos se usan para simular impuestos sobre las emisiones de CO2 provenientes de combustibles fósiles y subsidios al transporte público. Los resultados obtenidos indican que bienes como el gas licuado propano (GLP), gasolina y diésel tienen demandas elásticas, mientras que la demanda por transporte público y gasolina es más inelástica a medida que aumenta el ingreso del hogar. Adicionalmente, se obtiene que el transporte público es sustituto de la gasolina y diésel. Por otro lado, el impacto en el bienestar del consumidor se mide a través de la variación compensada y la variación en el excedente del consumidor. Los resultados de ambas medidas de bienestar son cercanos en todos los modelos, así que se concluye que en este caso la variación en el excedente del consumidor es un buen estimador de la variación compensada. Los impuestos sobre la gasolina generan la mayor pérdida de bienestar, seguido de impuestos al diésel y GLP. Por ejemplo, si se aplica una tasa de 131 USD/tCO2 sobre la gasolina, existe una pérdida de bienestar de alrededor de 280 millones de pesos uruguayos. Cabe mencionar que los impuestos simulados provocan una disminución en las emisiones de CO2 de los combustibles fósiles estudiados entre un 10% y 25% según la tasa aplicada, mientras que las emisiones del transporte público aumentan entre un 12% y 26% según el subsidio aplicado. Estos hallazgos sugieren que se debería aplicar un impuesto al carbono sobre la gasolina y diésel, y al mismo tiempo, financiar con estos recursos un subsidio al transporte público para evitar efectos distributivos indeseados o incrementos importantes en la pobreza energética. Sin embargo, es imprescindible incentivar la electrificación del transporte público y privado para alcanzar los objetivos climáticos del país, considerando que el sector transporte aún depende enormemente de los combustibles fósiles y emite grandes cantidades de GEI en Uruguay.
This study evaluates the effect of certain climate policies on the consumption of energy and public transportation goods, consumer welfare, and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in Uruguay. To achieve this, a demand system is estimated using the Cobb-Douglas, Linear Expenditure System (LES), Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions (Translog), Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) y Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) models. These models are then applied to real data from the Uruguay’s “Encuesta Nacional de Gastos e Ingresos de los Hogares” (ENGIH) 2016-2017. Then, the demand elasticities obtained from these models are used to simulate taxes on CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and subsidies for public transportation. The results indicate that goods such as liquefied propane gas (LPG), gasoline, and diesel have elastic demands. Additionally, the demand for public transportation and gasoline becomes more inelastic as household income increases. Furthermore, public transportation is found to be a substitute for gasoline and diesel. On the other hand, the impact on consumer welfare is measured through compensated variation and consumer surplus. The results of both measures are close across all models, so in this case, it is concluded that variation in consumer surplus is a good estimator of compensated variation. The taxes on gasoline produce the greatest welfare loss, followed by taxes on diesel and LPG. For example, if a rate of 131 USD/tCO2 is applied to gasoline, there is a welfare loss of around 280 million Uruguayan pesos. It is worth mentioning that the simulated taxes cause a reduction in CO2 emissions from the studied fossil fuels between 10% and 25% depending on the applied rate, while public transportation emissions increase between 12% and 26% depending on the applied subsidy. These results suggest that a carbon tax should be applied to gasoline and diesel, and at the same time, these resources should be used to finance a subsidy for public transportation to avoid undesirable distributional effects or significant increases in energy poverty. However, it is essential to incentivize the electrification of public and private transportation to achieve the country’s climate goals, considering that the transportation sector still heavily relies on fossil fuels and emits large amounts of GHGs.
This study evaluates the effect of certain climate policies on the consumption of energy and public transportation goods, consumer welfare, and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in Uruguay. To achieve this, a demand system is estimated using the Cobb-Douglas, Linear Expenditure System (LES), Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions (Translog), Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) y Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) models. These models are then applied to real data from the Uruguay’s “Encuesta Nacional de Gastos e Ingresos de los Hogares” (ENGIH) 2016-2017. Then, the demand elasticities obtained from these models are used to simulate taxes on CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and subsidies for public transportation. The results indicate that goods such as liquefied propane gas (LPG), gasoline, and diesel have elastic demands. Additionally, the demand for public transportation and gasoline becomes more inelastic as household income increases. Furthermore, public transportation is found to be a substitute for gasoline and diesel. On the other hand, the impact on consumer welfare is measured through compensated variation and consumer surplus. The results of both measures are close across all models, so in this case, it is concluded that variation in consumer surplus is a good estimator of compensated variation. The taxes on gasoline produce the greatest welfare loss, followed by taxes on diesel and LPG. For example, if a rate of 131 USD/tCO2 is applied to gasoline, there is a welfare loss of around 280 million Uruguayan pesos. It is worth mentioning that the simulated taxes cause a reduction in CO2 emissions from the studied fossil fuels between 10% and 25% depending on the applied rate, while public transportation emissions increase between 12% and 26% depending on the applied subsidy. These results suggest that a carbon tax should be applied to gasoline and diesel, and at the same time, these resources should be used to finance a subsidy for public transportation to avoid undesirable distributional effects or significant increases in energy poverty. However, it is essential to incentivize the electrification of public and private transportation to achieve the country’s climate goals, considering that the transportation sector still heavily relies on fossil fuels and emits large amounts of GHGs.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al Título de Ingeniero Civil Industrial
Keywords
Consumidores, Gases efecto invernadero, Combustibles fósiles