Estudio de prefactibilidad técnico-económica de una planta extrusora de cereales para abastecer al programa de alimentación escolar (PAE) de la Junta Nacional de Auxilio Escolar y Becas (JUNAEB)
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Date
2024
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Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
El presente estudio evalúa la pre factibilidad técnico – económica de una planta de extrusión de hojuela de cereal para abastecer al 100% del PAE de JUNAEB para la región de Ñuble, la ubicación de la planta de producción estará en la comuna de Chillán Viejo, Región de Ñuble.
El estudio de mercado reveló que la demanda total de raciones es de 987.670 mensuales, lo que corresponde a un 3,3% de la demanda nacional aproximadamente con un precio de venta de Ch$45 por ración. La inversión en maquinaria y equipos industriales para implementar la planta de procesos que produzca 326 toneladas anuales es de MMCh$163,2, por otra parte la inversión en capital de trabajo para el proyecto es de MMCh$112. Los costos totales del proyecto ascienden a MCh$426,3, incluyendo costos fijos y variables. El proyecto se evaluó a un periodo de 10 años considerando una tasa de descuento del 10% real anual en su escenario base. Se analizaron 3 variables de sensibilidad, tasa de descuento, volumen de ventas y precio de venta.
Los resultados de la evaluación económica indican que el proyecto puro en su escenario base, evaluado a una tasa del 10% real anual, es económicamente factible, alcanzando un VAN 10%REAL ANUAL positivo de MMCh$73,3, con TIR del 15% real anual. El volumen mínimo de ventas que debe tener el proyecto para asegurar la factibilidad económica es de 10.152.000 raciones anuales, lo que corresponde a 305 toneladas, un 93,4% de las raciones en su escenario base. El precio de venta mínimo que debe tener cada ración considerando un volumen de venta constante para que el proyecto sea factible es de Ch$44.
Se puede concluir que el proyecto puro en su escenario base es económicamente factible de ser realizado.
This study evaluates the technical-economic prefeasibility of a cereal extrusion plant to supply 100% of the School Feeding Program (PAE) of the National Board of School Assistance and Scholarships (JUNAEB) for the Ñuble region. The production plant will be located in Chillán Viejo, Ñuble Region, Chile. The market research revealed that the total demand is 987,670 school meals monthly, which corresponds to about 3.3% of the national demand, with a selling price of 45 Chilean pesos per meal. The investment in machinery and industrial equipment to implement the processing plant to produce 326 tons annually is 163,2 million Chilean pesos. Additionally, the working capital investment for the project is 112 million Chilean pesos. Total project costs reach 426.3 million Chilean pesos, including both fixed and variable costs. The project was evaluated over a 10-year-period, considering a real annual discount rate of 10% in the base-case scenario. Three sensitivity variables were analyzed: discount rate, sales volume, and selling price. The results of the economic analysis showed that the project, which was evaluated at a 10% real annual discount rate, is economically feasible in the base-case scenario, reaching a positive NPV of 73.3 million Chilean pesos with an annual IRR of 15. The minimum sales volume to ensure economic feasibility is 10,152,000 meals a year, corresponding to 305 tons and accounting for 93.4% of the meals in the base-case scenario. The minimum selling price per meal, considering a constant sales volume to ensure the feasibility of the project, is 44 Chilean pesos. The obtained results allow concluding that the project is economically feasible in the base-case scenario.
This study evaluates the technical-economic prefeasibility of a cereal extrusion plant to supply 100% of the School Feeding Program (PAE) of the National Board of School Assistance and Scholarships (JUNAEB) for the Ñuble region. The production plant will be located in Chillán Viejo, Ñuble Region, Chile. The market research revealed that the total demand is 987,670 school meals monthly, which corresponds to about 3.3% of the national demand, with a selling price of 45 Chilean pesos per meal. The investment in machinery and industrial equipment to implement the processing plant to produce 326 tons annually is 163,2 million Chilean pesos. Additionally, the working capital investment for the project is 112 million Chilean pesos. Total project costs reach 426.3 million Chilean pesos, including both fixed and variable costs. The project was evaluated over a 10-year-period, considering a real annual discount rate of 10% in the base-case scenario. Three sensitivity variables were analyzed: discount rate, sales volume, and selling price. The results of the economic analysis showed that the project, which was evaluated at a 10% real annual discount rate, is economically feasible in the base-case scenario, reaching a positive NPV of 73.3 million Chilean pesos with an annual IRR of 15. The minimum sales volume to ensure economic feasibility is 10,152,000 meals a year, corresponding to 305 tons and accounting for 93.4% of the meals in the base-case scenario. The minimum selling price per meal, considering a constant sales volume to ensure the feasibility of the project, is 44 Chilean pesos. The obtained results allow concluding that the project is economically feasible in the base-case scenario.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Ingeniero Agroindustrial
Keywords
Cereales - Chile - Aspectos económicos, JUNAEB (Chile). - Departamento de Alimentación