Variación espacio-temporal de la distribución potencial de tres armadillos eufractinos (Subfamilia: Euphractinae) del cono sur: Una aproximación para la definición de refugios para su conservación futura.
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Date
2023
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Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
Los Modelos de Nicho Ecológico (MNE) y Modelos de Distribución de Especies (MDE) proyectan el nicho de las especies hacia el espacio geográfico. Recientemente, su uso ha determinado refugios estables a largo plazo. Euphractinae exhibe tres especies que tienen problemáticas de conservación: Chaetophractus vellerosus, Chaetophractus villosus y Zaedyus pichiy. A raíz de esto, se identificaron variaciones espacio-temporales de la distribución potencial, estableciendo refugios para su conservación futura. Se proponen dos hipótesis: (a) producto del aumento térmico y aridez relacionados al Cambio climático se estima expansión de hábitats idóneos para las tres especies y (b) el principal refugio se ubicará en la región pampeana. Para ello, se generó una base de datos de registros de ocurrencia, se incorporaron 19 variables bioclimáticas y se modeló con MaxEnt. Los resultados señalaron buenas predicciones para AUC y Boyce. Los Análisis de Componentes Principales (PCA) indicaron que las especies adquirirán nuevos hábitats por la ampliación y desplazamiento de sus nichos a zonas térmicamente más altas y estables, donde las precipitaciones anuales y patrones estivales también cobraron importancia en C. vellerosus. La probable distribución Pasada de C. vellerosus coincidió con la literatura y ampliaron su conocimiento para Chile y Bolivia; en el Presente sus distribuciones potenciales incrementaron; y hacia el futuro se espera que expanda sus hábitats con el cambio climático. Z. pichiy en el Pasado señaló una distribución potencial más amplia que la conocida; en el Presente disminuyeron sus hábitats, pero se ampliaron hacia sectores argentinos y suroccidentales patagónicos; un RCP 8,5 indicó que aumentará su idoneidad en Chile, pareciéndose a su distribución real sugerida; y, por su potencial invasor sobre Tierra del Fuego (TDF), se sugiere reevaluar sus poblaciones australes. C. villosus sería un componente estable pampeano; hacia el Presente, sus hábitats disminuyeron e indicaron aislamiento entre las regiones pampeanas y patagónicas, persistiendo estas tendencias en el Futuro; y (TDF) indicó una alarmante idoneidad, territorio que ya se encuentra invadido por esta especie. Considerando que sólo las dos primeras especies se beneficiarán del cambio climático futuro, la hipótesis (H1) se rechazó. A pesar de que la región pampeana prometía ser un potencial refugio, la región del Cuyo asumió este rol, rechazando la hipótesis (H2). Este estudio proporciona las primeras aproximaciones biogeográficas de estos armadillos para el resto de países del cono sur y ofrece áreas para conservar en el futuro. Estas herramientas metodológicas a futuro permitirán la resolución de problemáticas de conservación y anticipar los efectos del Cambio climático sobre la fauna silvestre.
The Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs) project species niches into geographic space. Recently, their use has identified long-term stable refugia. Euphractinae exhibits three species facing conservation issues: Chaetophractus vellerosus, Chaetophractus villosus, and Zaedyus pichiy. In view of this, spatiotemporal variations in potential distribution were identified, establishing refugia for their future conservation. Two hypotheses are proposed: (a) due to the thermal increase and aridity related to climate change, the expansion of suitable habitats for the three species is estimated and (b) the main refugia will be in the Pampean region. For this, a database of occurrence records was generated, 19 bioclimatic variables were incorporated, and it was modeled with MaxEnt. Results showed good predictions for AUC and Boyce. Principal Component Analyses (PCA) indicated that species will acquire new habitats through the expansion and shifting of their niches to thermally higher and more stable zones, where annual precipitation and summer patterns also became important for C. vellerosus. The likely Past distribution of C. vellerosus coincided with literature and expanded their know distribution to Chile and Bolivia; in Present, their potential distributions increased; and towards the future, habitat expansion is expected with climate change. Z. pichiy in the Past indicated a broader potential distribution than the known one; in the Present, its habitats decreased but expanded towards Argentine and southwestern Patagonian sectors; an RCP 8.5 scenario indicated that their suitability will increase in Chile, resembling its suggested real distribution; and, due to its invasive potential over (TDF), it is suggested to reassess their southern populations. C. villosus would be a stable component in the Pampean region; towards the present, their habitats decreased and indicating isolation between Pampean and Patagonian regions, persisting these trends towards the Future; and (TDF) indicated alarming suitability, a territory that is already invaded by this species. Considering only the first two species will benefit from future climate change, hypothesis (H1) was rejected. Despite the fact that the Pampean region promised to be a potential refugia, the Cuyo region assumed this role, refuting hypothesis (H2). This study provides the first biogeographic approximations of these armadillos for the rest of the countries in the southern cone and offers areas for future conservation. These methodological tools in the future will allow the resolution of conservation issues and anticipate the effects of climate change on wildlife.
The Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs) project species niches into geographic space. Recently, their use has identified long-term stable refugia. Euphractinae exhibits three species facing conservation issues: Chaetophractus vellerosus, Chaetophractus villosus, and Zaedyus pichiy. In view of this, spatiotemporal variations in potential distribution were identified, establishing refugia for their future conservation. Two hypotheses are proposed: (a) due to the thermal increase and aridity related to climate change, the expansion of suitable habitats for the three species is estimated and (b) the main refugia will be in the Pampean region. For this, a database of occurrence records was generated, 19 bioclimatic variables were incorporated, and it was modeled with MaxEnt. Results showed good predictions for AUC and Boyce. Principal Component Analyses (PCA) indicated that species will acquire new habitats through the expansion and shifting of their niches to thermally higher and more stable zones, where annual precipitation and summer patterns also became important for C. vellerosus. The likely Past distribution of C. vellerosus coincided with literature and expanded their know distribution to Chile and Bolivia; in Present, their potential distributions increased; and towards the future, habitat expansion is expected with climate change. Z. pichiy in the Past indicated a broader potential distribution than the known one; in the Present, its habitats decreased but expanded towards Argentine and southwestern Patagonian sectors; an RCP 8.5 scenario indicated that their suitability will increase in Chile, resembling its suggested real distribution; and, due to its invasive potential over (TDF), it is suggested to reassess their southern populations. C. villosus would be a stable component in the Pampean region; towards the present, their habitats decreased and indicating isolation between Pampean and Patagonian regions, persisting these trends towards the Future; and (TDF) indicated alarming suitability, a territory that is already invaded by this species. Considering only the first two species will benefit from future climate change, hypothesis (H1) was rejected. Despite the fact that the Pampean region promised to be a potential refugia, the Cuyo region assumed this role, refuting hypothesis (H2). This study provides the first biogeographic approximations of these armadillos for the rest of the countries in the southern cone and offers areas for future conservation. These methodological tools in the future will allow the resolution of conservation issues and anticipate the effects of climate change on wildlife.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título profesional de Biólogo/a
Keywords
Armadillos, Nicho (Ecología), Cambio climático, Refugios de vida silvestre