Los impactos del cambio climático en la distribución de especies de focas en la Antártica.
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Date
2024
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Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
La Antártica es uno de varios paisajes que hoy en día están siendo afectados por el cambio climático, generando un impacto en el nicho ecológico de las especies presentes en este medio debido a la alteración geográfica y climática que resultan del cambio global. Sin embargo, este impacto no necesariamente es negativo para todas las especies. En la Antártica habitan seis especies de focas, tales como la Foca de Weddell, Foca Cangrejera, Foca de Ross, Foca Leopardo, Elefante Marino y Lobos Marinos que presentan bastantes similitudes morfológicas. No obstante, presentan diferencias claves en la reproducción, preferencias de hábitats y alimentación. Estos tres factores, son indiscutiblemente afectados por el cambio climático y potencialmente influyen en la distribución de estas especies. A pesar de ello, aún no sabemos si el cambio puede darse de manera favorable como desfavorables para las distintas especies. Debido a lo anterior, en la presente investigación se presenta un estudio sobre cómo los impactos del cambio climático afectan la distribución de Leptonychotes weddellii y Ommatophoca rossii, mediante un modelo de distribución de máxima entropía que predijo el hábitat idóneo de las especies en dos escenarios futuros que difieren en las concentraciones de los componentes atmosféricos radiactivamente activos, tales como los gases de invernadero. Para esto se definieron las variables ambientales marinas potencialmente asociados a la distribución de las especies y el hábitat idóneo presente de las especies mediante puntos de ocurrencia. Gracias a esto se obtuvo que, bajo los posibles cambios climáticos del futuro, la especie L. weddellii mostrará una reducción en el área en la que se distribuye, mientras que O. rossii experimentará una ampliación en su rango de distribución en el escenario climático más desfavorable. Esto implica que, en contextos de cambio climático, es probable que la distribución de L. weddellii se vea impactada negativamente, mientras que la distribución de O. rossii podría verse afectada favorablemente.
Antarctica is one of several landscapes currently being affected by climate change, impacting the ecological niche of the species present in this environment due to the geographic and climatic alteration resulting from global change. However, this impact is not necessarily negative for all species. The Antarctic is home to six species of seals: the Weddell Seal, Crabeater Seal, Ross Seal, Leopard Seal, Elephant Seal, and Fur Seals, which have many morphological similarities. However, they have critical differences in reproduction, habitat preferences, and feeding. These three factors are indisputably affected by climate change and potentially influence the distribution of these species. However, we do not know whether the change may be favorable or unfavorable for the different species. Due to the above, the present research presents a study on how the impacts of climate change affect the distribution of Leptonychotes weddellii and Ommatophoca rossii, using a maximum entropy distribution model that predicted the suitable habitat of the species in two future scenarios that differ in the concentrations of radioactively active atmospheric components, such as greenhouse gases. For this purpose, the marine environmental variables potentially associated with the distribution of the species and the present suitable habitat of the species were defined using occurrence points. Thanks to this, it was obtained that, under possible future climate changes, the species L. weddellii will show a reduction in the area in which it is distributed. At the same time, O. rossii will experience an expansion in its distribution range in the most unfavorable climate scenario. This implies that, under climate change, the distribution of L. weddellii is likely to be negatively impacted, while the distribution of O. rossii could be favorably affected.
Antarctica is one of several landscapes currently being affected by climate change, impacting the ecological niche of the species present in this environment due to the geographic and climatic alteration resulting from global change. However, this impact is not necessarily negative for all species. The Antarctic is home to six species of seals: the Weddell Seal, Crabeater Seal, Ross Seal, Leopard Seal, Elephant Seal, and Fur Seals, which have many morphological similarities. However, they have critical differences in reproduction, habitat preferences, and feeding. These three factors are indisputably affected by climate change and potentially influence the distribution of these species. However, we do not know whether the change may be favorable or unfavorable for the different species. Due to the above, the present research presents a study on how the impacts of climate change affect the distribution of Leptonychotes weddellii and Ommatophoca rossii, using a maximum entropy distribution model that predicted the suitable habitat of the species in two future scenarios that differ in the concentrations of radioactively active atmospheric components, such as greenhouse gases. For this purpose, the marine environmental variables potentially associated with the distribution of the species and the present suitable habitat of the species were defined using occurrence points. Thanks to this, it was obtained that, under possible future climate changes, the species L. weddellii will show a reduction in the area in which it is distributed. At the same time, O. rossii will experience an expansion in its distribution range in the most unfavorable climate scenario. This implies that, under climate change, the distribution of L. weddellii is likely to be negatively impacted, while the distribution of O. rossii could be favorably affected.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título profesional de Bióloga
Keywords
Cambios climáticos, Focas, Regiones Antárticas