Evolución de la polarización política con modelo de dinámica de opinión: Chile Y Estados Unidos como casos de estudio.
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Date
2025
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Publisher
Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
La polarización política no es un fenómeno nuevo; sin embargo, las democracias occidentales enfrentan hoy un creciente riesgo ante la expansión de discursos polarizantes que encuentran eco en la ciudadanía. Aunque el estudio de la polarización ha sido tradicionalmente abordado desde la ciencia política, en los últimos años han surgido enfoques desde la física que contribuyen a su comprensión mediante los sistemas complejos.
Esta tesis analiza la evolución de la polarización a través de un modelo de opinión continua aplicado sobre redes geográficas en Chile y Estados Unidos, con el objetivo de describir la dinámica territorial del voto y su relación con los cambios en la polarización a nivel nacional.
Se propone una modificación del modelo de Hegselmann–Krause para representar la interacción entre territorios a partir de datos de elecciones presidenciales. El modelo se ajustó mediante la optimización de la verosimilitud entre las simulaciones y los resultados observados.
Los resultados muestran una alta capacidad descriptiva para el caso estadounidense, destacando el rol de la distribución espacial de los condados en la evolución de los resultados electorales. Estos hallazgos sugieren que la estructura geográfica puede influir significativamente en la dinámica de polarización política.
Political polarization is not a new phenomenon; however, Western democracies are currently facing an increasing risk due to the rise of polarizing discourses that resonate strongly within the population. Although the analysis of polarization has traditionally been approached from political science, recent years have seen the emergence of perspectives from physics that contribute to its understanding through complex systems. This thesis analyzes the evolution of polarization using a continuous opinion model applied to geographic networks in Chile and the United States, with the aim of describing the territorial dynamics of voting behavior and their relation to changes in national-level polarization. A modification of the Hegselmann–Krause model is proposed to represent the interaction between territories based on presidential election data. The model was calibrated by maximizing the likelihood between simulated and observed results. The results show a high descriptive capacity in the U.S. case, highlighting the role of the spatial distribution of counties in the evolution of electoral outcomes. These findings suggest that geographic structure can significantly influence the dynamics of political polarization.
Political polarization is not a new phenomenon; however, Western democracies are currently facing an increasing risk due to the rise of polarizing discourses that resonate strongly within the population. Although the analysis of polarization has traditionally been approached from political science, recent years have seen the emergence of perspectives from physics that contribute to its understanding through complex systems. This thesis analyzes the evolution of polarization using a continuous opinion model applied to geographic networks in Chile and the United States, with the aim of describing the territorial dynamics of voting behavior and their relation to changes in national-level polarization. A modification of the Hegselmann–Krause model is proposed to represent the interaction between territories based on presidential election data. The model was calibrated by maximizing the likelihood between simulated and observed results. The results show a high descriptive capacity in the U.S. case, highlighting the role of the spatial distribution of counties in the evolution of electoral outcomes. These findings suggest that geographic structure can significantly influence the dynamics of political polarization.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Físico.
Keywords
Sistemas Complejos, Sociofísica, Política