Diagnóstico del pronóstico de caudales de deshielos para la temporada de riego en Chile
Loading...
Date
2025
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
El pronóstico de caudales de deshielo es una herramienta fundamental para planificar la gestión de los recursos hídricos en la temporada de primavera-verano, principalmente en zonas con una fuerte componente agrícola. La Dirección General de Aguas (DGA) está encargada de realizar el pronóstico para la zona Centro y Centro-Sur de Chile. Este estudio busca diagnosticar de manera cuantitativa el error del pronóstico de caudales de deshielo de la DGA, comparando los pronósticos históricos con los caudales observados, obteniendo así, valores estacionales y mensuales de error absoluto y error relativo de dicho pronóstico, para cada cuenca analizada. Se obtuvo que el error medio anual es en su mayoría superior al 20% declarado como umbral por la DGA, demostrando que es necesaria una mejora metodológica para poder disminuir el error del pronóstico por debajo el umbral del 20% en promedio. Se analizó bajo qué condiciones meteorológicas el pronóstico presentan mayor o menor error, sin embargo no se logró encontrar un resultado concluyente, lo cual apunta a lo complejo del problema en cuestión. Se destaca la importancia de encontrar estrategias que permitan mejorar el pronóstico de deshielo estacional, en donde se hace imperativa, la incorporación de metodologías que incluyan de manera explícita, los procesos de acumulación y derretimiento de nieve, y cómo estos varían espacial y temporalmente dentro de cada cuenca. Esto requiere de una mejora continua de nuestra capacidad de monitoreo nival en la Cordillera de Los Andes.
The snowmelt runoff forecast is a fundamental tool for planning water resource management during the spring-summer season, especially in regions with a strong agricultural component. The General Water Directorate (DGA) is responsible for producing the forecast for the Central and South-Central zones of Chile. This study aims to quantitatively assess the error in the DGA’s snowmelt runoff forecast by comparing historical forecasts with observed streamflows, thereby obtaining seasonal and monthly values of absolute and relative errors for each analyzed basin. The results show that the average annual error mostly exceeds the 20% threshold declared by the DGA, indicating the need for methodological improvements to reduce forecast errors below the 20% threshold on average. The study also analyzed under which meteorological conditions the forecast presents greater or lesser error; however, no conclusive result was found, highlighting the complexity of the issue. The importance of finding strategies to improve seasonal snowmelt forecasts is emphasized, particularly through the incorporation of methodologies that explicitly include snow accumulation and melt processes, and how these vary spatially and temporally within each basin. This, in turn, 4 requires continuous improvement in our capacity to monitor snowpack in the Andes Mountains.
The snowmelt runoff forecast is a fundamental tool for planning water resource management during the spring-summer season, especially in regions with a strong agricultural component. The General Water Directorate (DGA) is responsible for producing the forecast for the Central and South-Central zones of Chile. This study aims to quantitatively assess the error in the DGA’s snowmelt runoff forecast by comparing historical forecasts with observed streamflows, thereby obtaining seasonal and monthly values of absolute and relative errors for each analyzed basin. The results show that the average annual error mostly exceeds the 20% threshold declared by the DGA, indicating the need for methodological improvements to reduce forecast errors below the 20% threshold on average. The study also analyzed under which meteorological conditions the forecast presents greater or lesser error; however, no conclusive result was found, highlighting the complexity of the issue. The importance of finding strategies to improve seasonal snowmelt forecasts is emphasized, particularly through the incorporation of methodologies that explicitly include snow accumulation and melt processes, and how these vary spatially and temporally within each basin. This, in turn, 4 requires continuous improvement in our capacity to monitor snowpack in the Andes Mountains.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Ingeniero Civil Agrícola
Keywords
Deshielo escorrentía, Recursos hídricos, Riego Planificación