Enfoque de evaluación del stock de sardina austral (Sprattus fuegensis) con modelos de producción Bayesianos JABBA en el mar interior de la Región de Aysén.
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Date
2025
Journal Title
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Volume Title
Publisher
Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
En el mar interior de la Región de Aysén, se encuentra la sardina austral (Sprattus fuegensis), la cual es una especie clave en el ecosistema marino de la región austral de Chile y es un recurso de importancia económica para las comunidades pesqueras artesanales de la Región de Aysén, a pesar de ser una especie de gran importancia comercial, aún se desconocen varios aspectos de su biología y aún más importante carece de un plan de manejo pesquero.
Los modelos tradicionales de evaluación de stocks que suelen depender exclusivamente de los datos de capturas han demostrado ser insuficientes para reflejar con precisión la dinámica poblacional de esta especie, especialmente en un entorno caracterizado por una alta variabilidad ambiental y limitaciones en la disponibilidad de datos.
En este contexto, el modelo de evaluación JABBA (Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment) surge como una herramienta innovadora que permite integrar diferentes fuentes de información, como el índice de biomasa acústico, para proporcionar estimaciones más robustas del estado del recurso. Este modelo bayesiano permite incorporar la incertidumbre inherente a los datos y mejorar la precisión de las proyecciones, contribuyendo así a la toma de decisiones informadas para la gestión de la pesquería.
Se evaluaron cuatro modelos de producción (Schaefer, Fox, Pella-Tomlinson con m fijo y m libre) bajo distintos valores del coeficiente de variabilidad (CV = 0.1, 0.15 y 0.2). El modelo Schaefer (M1) con CV = 0.15 fue seleccionado como modelo principal, al mostrar el mejor desempeño global y estabilidad retrospectiva. El modelo M4 Pella-Tomlinson con m libre se utilizó como modelo de contraste por su buena capacidad de ajuste y flexibilidad estructural.
Los resultados indican que la sardina austral se encuentra actualmente en un estado saludable, con niveles de biomasa superiores al punto de referencia objetivo y mortalidad por pesca por debajo del objetivo de manejo. Sin embargo, se detectaron importantes brechas en el monitoreo biológico, reproductivo y genético del recurso. En consecuencia, se propone implementar un plan de manejo pesquero específico, fortalecer el seguimiento mensual y avanzar hacia modelos estructurados por talla.
Este estudio entrega herramientas metodológicas sólidas y evidencia científica para apoyar la toma de decisiones y avanzar hacia una gestión adaptativa, sostenible y contextualizada del recurso en la Región de Aysén.
In the inland sea of the Aysén Region, the Southern Sardine (Sprattus fuegensis) is found, which is a key species in the marine ecosystem of the southern region of Chile and is an economically important resource for the artisanal fishing communities of the Aysén Region, despite being a species of great commercial importance, several aspects of its biology are still unknown and even more importantly it lacks a fishery management plan. Traditional stock assessment models that tend to rely exclusively on catch data have proven to be insufficient to accurately reflect the population dynamics of this species, especially in an environment characterized by high environmental variability and data availability limitations. In this context, the JABBA (Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment) model emerges as an innovative tool that allows the integration of different sources of information, such as the acoustic biomass index, to provide more robust estimates of the state of the resource. This Bayesian model allows incorporating the uncertainty inherent in the data and improving the accuracy of projections, thus contributing to informed decision making for fishery management. Four production models (Schaefer, Fox, and Pella-Tomlinson with fixed and free m) were evaluated under different values of the coefficient of variability (CV = 0.1, 0.15, and 0.2). The Schaefer model (M1) with CV = 0.15 was selected as the main model, as it showed the best overall performance and retrospective stability. The Pella Tomlinson model with free m (M4) was used as a contrast model due to its good fit and structural flexibility. The results indicate that the southern sardine is currently in a healthy state, with biomass levels above the target reference point and fishing mortality below the target. However, important gaps were detected in the biological, reproductive and genetic monitoring of the resource. Consequently, it is proposed to implement a specific fishery management plan, strengthen monthly monitoring and move towards size-structured models. This study provides solid methodological tools and scientific evidence to support decision-making and move towards an adaptive, sustainable and contextualized management of the resource in the Aysén Region.
In the inland sea of the Aysén Region, the Southern Sardine (Sprattus fuegensis) is found, which is a key species in the marine ecosystem of the southern region of Chile and is an economically important resource for the artisanal fishing communities of the Aysén Region, despite being a species of great commercial importance, several aspects of its biology are still unknown and even more importantly it lacks a fishery management plan. Traditional stock assessment models that tend to rely exclusively on catch data have proven to be insufficient to accurately reflect the population dynamics of this species, especially in an environment characterized by high environmental variability and data availability limitations. In this context, the JABBA (Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment) model emerges as an innovative tool that allows the integration of different sources of information, such as the acoustic biomass index, to provide more robust estimates of the state of the resource. This Bayesian model allows incorporating the uncertainty inherent in the data and improving the accuracy of projections, thus contributing to informed decision making for fishery management. Four production models (Schaefer, Fox, and Pella-Tomlinson with fixed and free m) were evaluated under different values of the coefficient of variability (CV = 0.1, 0.15, and 0.2). The Schaefer model (M1) with CV = 0.15 was selected as the main model, as it showed the best overall performance and retrospective stability. The Pella Tomlinson model with free m (M4) was used as a contrast model due to its good fit and structural flexibility. The results indicate that the southern sardine is currently in a healthy state, with biomass levels above the target reference point and fishing mortality below the target. However, important gaps were detected in the biological, reproductive and genetic monitoring of the resource. Consequently, it is proposed to implement a specific fishery management plan, strengthen monthly monitoring and move towards size-structured models. This study provides solid methodological tools and scientific evidence to support decision-making and move towards an adaptive, sustainable and contextualized management of the resource in the Aysén Region.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Biólogo/a Marino/a.
Keywords
Recursos pesqueros, Industria pesquera, Ecología marina