Simulación de caudales en cuencas costeras del centro-sur de Chile.
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Date
2024
Authors
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Journal ISSN
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Publisher
Universidad de Concepción
Abstract
El agua como recurso indispensable de la vida y la sociedad, no solo determina la subsistencia de la población sino también el funcionamiento de su economía y productividad. Por ello es vital conocer el estado de este recurso. Esto parte por contar con información fluviométrica, es decir, datos sobre el nivel histórico y actual de los ríos. Estos datos juegan un papel crucial en la gestión de recursos hídricos, obras de infraestructura, predicción de desastres y toma de decisiones. Sin embargo, en Chile, al igual que en muchas partes del mundo, la mayor parte de las cuencas no cuentan con dicha información. El objetivo de este trabajo es simular caudales medios diarios en cuencas del centro sur del país, específicamente en dos cuencas en monitoreo situadas en la zona costera de la región del Biobío, que carecen de información fluviométrica histórica.
Se recopiló información hidrometeorológica y fisiográfica de cuencas cercanas a las cuencas en estudio con registros disponibles, y se monitorearon las cuencas sin registros históricos durante el período reciente. Con esta información, se desarrollaron modelos empíricos, utilizando métodos de escala y regresiones, aplicando un enfoque de regionalización basado en la información fluviométrica de una cuenca donante. Los modelos se calibraron y luego validaron en distintos escenarios, con datos de la cuenca con registro y con datos de la cuenca monitoreada, realizando pruebas de bondad de ajuste. El método de transposición de caudales produce buenos resultados, pero en general, los modelos de regresión mostraron un mejor ajuste. El modelo de regresión lineal logarítmica múltiple presentó un desempeño deficiente, mientras que el modelo de mejor desempeño fue el de regresión lineal múltiple (salvo pequeñas discrepancias en los caudales altos y de recesión). Este último se utilizó para reconstruir la serie histórica de caudales medios diarios de una de las cuencas desde enero de 1983 hasta diciembre de 2020.
Water, as an essential resource for life and society, not only ensures the survival of the population but also but also sustains its economy and productivity. Therefore, it is vital to understand the status of this resource. This begins with runoff data, i.e., information on the historical and current discharge of rivers. Such data is crucial for water resource management, infrastructure planning, disaster prediction, and decision-making processes. However, in Chile, as in many parts of the world, most river basins lack such information. The aim of this study is to simulate daily average streamflow in river basins located in the central-southern region of the country, specifically in two ungauged basins located in the coastal area of the Biobío Region, which lack historical streamflow data. Hydrometeorological and physiographic data from basins near the study basins with available information were gathered, while streamflow was monitored in the ungauged basins over the recent period. Using this information, empirical models were developed through scaling methods and regression techniques, applying a regionalization approach based on flow data from a donor basin. The models were calibrated and subsequently validated under different scenarios, using data from the basin with historical streamflow records and from the monitored basin, conducting goodness-of-fit tests. The streamflow transposition method yielded good results, but in general, regression models provided a better fit. The multiple logarithmic linear regression model performed poorly, while the best-performing model was the multiple linear regression model (with minor discrepancies in peak flows and recession flows). The latter was used to reconstruct the historical time series of daily average streamflow for one of the basins from 1983 to 2020.
Water, as an essential resource for life and society, not only ensures the survival of the population but also but also sustains its economy and productivity. Therefore, it is vital to understand the status of this resource. This begins with runoff data, i.e., information on the historical and current discharge of rivers. Such data is crucial for water resource management, infrastructure planning, disaster prediction, and decision-making processes. However, in Chile, as in many parts of the world, most river basins lack such information. The aim of this study is to simulate daily average streamflow in river basins located in the central-southern region of the country, specifically in two ungauged basins located in the coastal area of the Biobío Region, which lack historical streamflow data. Hydrometeorological and physiographic data from basins near the study basins with available information were gathered, while streamflow was monitored in the ungauged basins over the recent period. Using this information, empirical models were developed through scaling methods and regression techniques, applying a regionalization approach based on flow data from a donor basin. The models were calibrated and subsequently validated under different scenarios, using data from the basin with historical streamflow records and from the monitored basin, conducting goodness-of-fit tests. The streamflow transposition method yielded good results, but in general, regression models provided a better fit. The multiple logarithmic linear regression model performed poorly, while the best-performing model was the multiple linear regression model (with minor discrepancies in peak flows and recession flows). The latter was used to reconstruct the historical time series of daily average streamflow for one of the basins from 1983 to 2020.
Description
Tesis presentada para optar al título de Ingeniero Civil.
Keywords
Ríos, Cuencas hidrográficas, Caudales